The U.S. dollar (USD) and the euro (EUR) have surged in Cuba’s informal market amid regional tensions and economic unease following the arrest of Venezuelan leader Nicolás Maduro by U.S. forces in Caracas.
According to the independent observatory elTOQUE, the dollar is currently valued at 445 Cuban pesos (CUP), a five-point rise since Sunday, while the euro has climbed to 485 CUP, marking a similar increase.
Informal Exchange Rates Soar Amid Political Unrest
On Monday, January 5, 2026, the informal exchange rates were recorded as follows: the dollar at 445 CUP, the euro at 485 CUP, and the Freely Convertible Currency (MLC) at 400 CUP. The MLC also rose five points from the previous day. This upward trend among the three currencies indicates a growing lack of confidence in the Cuban peso (CUP).
Monthly exchange rate trends reveal a previous period of relative stability for both the dollar and euro during December's latter half. However, starting January 2, both currencies began a strong upward trajectory, in tandem with the political developments in Venezuela.
Currency Trends Reflect Political Shifts
The dollar, for example, had gradually declined from 450 CUP in mid-December to a low of 435 CUP by the month's end, only to bounce back swiftly to its current peak of 445 CUP, the highest in three weeks.
The euro exhibited a similar pattern, remaining steady around 480 CUP throughout December, with a slight dip before the holidays. It then began to recover on January 3, reaching 485 CUP, its highest point since the month began.
Conversely, the MLC experienced a dramatic surge at December's end, skyrocketing from 280 CUP to over 400 CUP in just ten days. It has since stabilized, suggesting an adjustment period after its historical peak.
The Venezuelan Crisis and Its Ripple Effect in Cuba
The arrest of Maduro and his wife, Cilia Flores, who were taken to New York to face drug trafficking charges, has sent shockwaves through Latin American politics and immediately impacted Cuba's economy.
The longstanding alliance between Havana and Caracas, based on exchanging oil for medical and security services, now faces jeopardy, perceived by Cubans as a direct threat to their already fragile internal stability.
"Whenever an external support link breaks, the Cuban peso loses value," remarked an economic analyst from Havana. "Geopolitical uncertainty drives people to seek refuge in the dollar and euro, increasing pressure on informal rates."
Economic Weakness Exposed
With the dollar at 445 CUP and the euro at 485 CUP, the Cuban peso is entering a new depreciation cycle. The Central Bank's official floating rate fails to stabilize the market, as prices rise and formal access to foreign currencies remains limited.
The Venezuelan episode has acted as a catalyst, but the underlying issue persists: an economy lacking liquidity, transparency, and trust. In the streets, Cubans summarize the situation with a phrase circulating on social media: "When Caracas trembles, the peso collapses in Havana."
Understanding the Cuban Currency Fluctuations
Why are the dollar and euro rising in Cuba's informal market?
The rise is primarily due to geopolitical tensions and economic uncertainty following the arrest of Nicolás Maduro, creating a lack of confidence in the Cuban peso.
How has the political situation in Venezuela affected Cuba's economy?
The close alliance between Cuba and Venezuela is at risk, causing instability in Cuba as its economy heavily relies on this partnership, especially for oil and medical services.
What is the impact of the depreciating Cuban peso?
A weaker peso leads to higher prices and reduced purchasing power, exacerbating economic hardships for the Cuban population.