Independent Report Highlights Surge in Arbovirus Deaths in Cuba: A Closer Look at the Data

A report from the Cuban Citizen Audit Observatory (OCAC), released this Monday, challenges the official figures regarding the current health crisis in Cuba.

The study estimates that at least 8,700 individuals may have died from arboviruses such as dengue, chikungunya, and the Oropouche virus.

This figure is staggeringly 185 times higher than the 47 deaths acknowledged by the Cuban Ministry of Public Health (MINSAP) up to mid-December, a number later updated to 55.

The document claims, "They are lying again, just as they did during COVID-19," accusing the Cuban government of deliberately concealing the tragedy's scope.

Estimations Based on Official Data and International Standards

Ironically, the OCAC's projections are grounded in data acknowledged by Cuban authorities, such as the infection rate.

Dr. Francisco Durán, the national director of Epidemiology, confessed on television that 30% of the population—approximately 2.9 million people—had fallen ill during the syndemic.

Using this statistic, the report outlines three mortality scenarios:

• Scenario A (low mortality, 0.1%): 2,900 deaths, 61 times the initial official figure.
• Scenario B (moderate mortality, 0.3–0.5%): between 8,700 and 14,500 deaths. This scenario is deemed the most realistic for Cuba, considering hospital overcrowding and malnutrition.
• Scenario C (high mortality, 1%): up to 29,000 deaths in the worst conceivable situation.

"It's impossible for the figure to be reduced to 47 deaths, as officially claimed by the Cuban government up to mid-December. The reality is at least 185 times higher," the report asserts.

The Healthcare System: Figures of Collapse

The data in the report paint a picture of a crumbling healthcare infrastructure, the result of years of underinvestment and prioritization of other sectors, particularly tourism, managed by the military conglomerate GAESA:

• Between 2021 and 2024, Cuba lost over 30,000 doctors and 15,000 nurses.
• More than 7,000 hospital beds were eliminated.
• By January 2025, 64% of the medications that BioCubaFarma was supposed to provide were unavailable.
• The lack of pediatric syrups, intravenous solutions, reagents, and antipyretics has rendered clinics inoperative.

According to numerous testimonies, medical attention is limited to general diagnoses without real capacity for confirmation or treatment: the "nonspecific febrile syndrome" has become a catch-all term that conceals the true nature of the outbreak.

Statistical Manipulation: The Invisible Death

The OCAC documents systematic practices of underreporting and manipulation of death certificates.

Healthcare professionals interviewed explained that they are instructed not to list viral infections as underlying causes, effectively erasing any trace of arboviruses from official statistics.

"That's what should be done as a basic ethical issue. The real goal is to distort epidemiological statistics," stated one of the interviewed doctors.

This mechanism was previously reported during the COVID-19 pandemic and is now being repeated with the current syndemic, resulting in a distorted public perception and a delayed or nonexistent state response.

Perfect Conditions for a Devastating Epidemic

The report also highlights environmental and social factors as decisive aggravators.

Chronic garbage accumulation, mosquito breeding sites, prolonged blackouts, water shortages, and food scarcity have created the perfect conditions for viral spread.

In Havana, more than 30% of garbage goes uncollected, remaining in the streets and creating breeding grounds.

According to OCAC estimates, only 15% of the Cuban population manages to have three meals a day.

Inflation, malnutrition, and sustained stress have weakened the collective immune system.

"The disease has spread not only because the virus is present, but because it found a country collapsed in all respects," one specialist interviewed declared.

Invisible Sequelae, Untreated Disability

Beyond the deaths, the OCAC warns about the long-term effects of chikungunya, which can include chronic arthralgia, severe fatigue, respiratory difficulties, and neurological damage.

In other countries, these consequences are addressed with physical therapy, specific pain relief, and multidisciplinary care.

In Cuba, such tools are nonexistent. The result: young people are left disabled without rehabilitation, medication, or financial resources to cope with daily suffering.

"People of working age become partially or totally incapacitated without access to extended medical leave, disability pensions, or recovery therapies," summarizes the report.

Testimonies Contradicting the State

The report weaves technical data with personal stories that contradict the official narrative:

• In Ciego de Ávila, Isiel Díaz Vera, a healthy young man, died following respiratory complications associated with the virus. He was never counted as a victim.
• In Holguín, a 42-year-old woman died while waiting for an ambulance that never arrived.
• In Havana, a mother recounts: "We spent all of October sick. First the child, then my husband, then me. No one attended to us, but we ended up okay. Others weren't so lucky."

Conclusion: A Health Crisis Reflecting State Collapse

For the Cuban Citizen Audit Observatory, the health emergency is the most visible reflection of the structural collapse of Cuba's political and economic system.

It's not an accidental event, but a catastrophe built by deliberate decisions, indifference to citizen suffering, and an institutional culture that prioritizes propaganda over human life.

"The true achievements of the Cuban model are neither hospitals nor statistics, but the systematic silencing of victims," the document concludes.

While the government insists that arboviruses are "stably reported" and lethality is low, the data, testimonies, and reality in neighborhoods tell a much darker, tragic, and silenced story.