This Sunday, December 28th, Cuba is bracing for one of the most significant mismatches in recent times between electricity demand and the actual supply capacity during peak consumption hours.
The Electric Union has warned that during the system's most critical hours, the gap between what the country needs and what it can deliver will exceed 1,900 megawatts (MW). This alarming figure highlights the severity of the energy crisis affecting millions of households.
Saturday's events set a troubling precedent. Power outages stretched throughout the day, with the most significant shortfall reaching 1,956 MW at 6:30 pm.
According to the official report, as early as Sunday morning, demand dramatically outpaced actual generation capacity. At 6:00 am, availability stood at 1,370 MW while demand was at 1,920 MW, with a shortfall of 567 MW.
By midday, the gap is expected to widen considerably to 1,030 MW. During the evening peak, total energy demand will surge to 3,370 MW, but the system will only be able to provide 1,468 MW, even with partial generation additions.
This leaves a shortfall of 1,902 MW, potentially resulting in widespread blackouts due to a lack of 1,930 MW, marking one of the highest deficits in recent weeks.
The Underlying Causes of the Energy Crisis
The fragility of the system is attributed to numerous technical failures and operational shutdowns, keeping large volumes of energy offline.
Five generating units remain inactive at the Mariel, Felton, Diez de Octubre, and Renté thermoelectric plants, while two others are undergoing maintenance in Santa Cruz and Cienfuegos.
Additionally, a loss of 1,026 MW due to a lack of fuel impacts 88 distributed generation plants (780 MW), the Central Fuel Plant in Moa (108 MW), and 138 MW unavailable due to a lubricant shortage.
Thermal generation limitations also result in 589 MW being out of service.
Capital City Not Spared
Havana is not immune to this dire situation. The Electric Company confirmed nearly six hours of outages on Saturday, with the maximum impact reaching 274 MW at 6:30 pm, and power was restored around 10:00 pm.
Although no outages were reported in the early hours following, the company admitted that any increase in demand on the National Electric System (SEN) could plunge the city back into darkness.
Impact on Cuban Society
The energy crisis strikes again during one of the most sensitive periods of the year when families try to gather, cook, and share under minimum normal conditions.
The lack of an effective and sustained strategy to ensure stable supply leaves the population caught between prolonged blackouts, daily improvisation, and deepening social weariness.
During the Christmas season, the precariousness of the system once again imposes limitations, affecting not only daily life but also the ability to experience these times with a semblance of peace.
Far from being an isolated event, the situation reflects the accumulated deterioration of an energy model that has not received necessary investments, maintenance, or structural solutions for years.
While official rhetoric continues to promise recovery, the reality for the population is recurring blackouts, constant pressure on households, and an emotional toll that worsens during times traditionally associated with celebration and rest.
Understanding Cuba's Energy Shortfall
What is causing the massive power deficit in Cuba?
The massive power deficit is caused by technical failures, operational shutdowns, and fuel shortages, which have left significant volumes of energy offline.
How is Havana affected by the power outages?
Havana experienced nearly six hours of power outages on Saturday, with a maximum impact of 274 MW. Although power was restored by 10:00 pm, any increase in demand could lead to further blackouts.
Why is the energy crisis particularly impactful during the holiday season?
The energy crisis is particularly impactful during the holiday season as families attempt to gather and celebrate under normal conditions, which are disrupted by power outages.