This Thursday, the Cuban government unveiled its Economic Plan for 2026, forecasting a meager 1% growth in Gross Domestic Product (GDP). This announcement was met with widespread ridicule, disbelief, and criticism from independent economists and citizens on social media, amid the most severe economic crisis the country has faced in decades.
Economy and Planning Minister Joaquín Alonso Vázquez presented these projections during the sixth regular session of the National Assembly of People's Power. He acknowledged that the plan is built on the principle of "managing the crisis," mitigating the effects of the so-called "economic war," and aiming for a "gradual recovery."
Key Figures from the 2026 Economic Plan
According to official data shared on Facebook by the pro-government site Cubadebate, the government's plan includes:
GDP: Projected growth of 1%.
Total Exports: $9.969 billion USD, an increase of $1.122 billion compared to 2025.
Goods Exports: $2.530 billion USD (+$765 million).
Services Exports: $7.438 billion USD (+$357 million).
Tourism: 2.2 million visitors, a 15.8% increase.
Sugar Production: 229,500 tons of raw sugar and 15,000 tons of refined sugar, figures still far below historical levels.
Total Electricity Generation: 18,606 GWh, an increase of 2,688 GWh.
Renewable Energy: 2,461 GWh, accounting for 13% of the energy matrix.
Cargo Transport: 30.45 million tons, a growth of 31%.
Passenger Transport: 923.6 million people, just 67,400 more than in 2025.
Adjustments, Deficit, and a "War Economy"
Alonso Vázquez admitted that for 2026, it is not feasible to project expenditures exceeding revenues. Therefore, "adjustment alternatives" in key areas were evaluated to reduce the fiscal deficit to a "manageable" level.
The minister reiterated that the Cuban economy operates under a "war economy" scenario, influenced by a combination of external and internal factors. He blamed the intensification of the U.S. embargo for the main structural problems.
"The harmful effects of the blockade are more evident than ever in all areas of the Cuban economy and society," he stated before the Parliament.
Priorities: Payments, Energy, and Security
The minister admitted that Cuba's limited financial resources have been focused on prioritized payments such as importing food and fuel, maintaining the National Electric System, purchasing medications, and covering defense and national security expenses.
Despite these efforts, he conceded that resources have been insufficient and that their management has been "extremely complex." As an alternative, the government claims to have prioritized strategic sectors for future income generation through foreign currency self-financing schemes.
Social Skepticism and Lack of Credibility
Despite the official stance, the announcement of a 1% growth sparked a torrent of sarcasm and ridicule among the comments on Cubadebate's post. Many Cubans questioned the credibility of these projections, pointing out the disconnect between the figures and the everyday reality of blackouts, inflation, shortages, and transportation collapse.
Critical economists argue that even if this growth were achieved, it would have no real impact on the population's quality of life after years of accumulated economic contraction.
2026: A Year of Growing Uncertainty
The minister himself acknowledged that the outlook for 2026 could worsen due to new actions by the United States government, though he avoided detailing alternative scenarios.
The plan, as he explained, was constructed from projections of the national economic model, estimates for 2025, directives from the Council of Ministers, and proposals from state bodies and provincial governments, without the involvement of independent actors or the non-state private sector.
Meanwhile, for millions of Cubans, the official projections contrast starkly with a reality marked by prolonged blackouts, eroded wages, and an unprecedented exodus, explaining why a 1% growth does not inspire hope but rather skepticism and mockery.
Understanding Cuba's Economic Challenges
Why is Cuba predicting only a 1% GDP growth?
The Cuban government has acknowledged that the country's economy is in crisis, and the 1% GDP growth prediction reflects an attempt to manage this crisis while dealing with external and internal economic challenges.
What are the main criticisms of Cuba's economic projections?
Critics argue that the projections lack credibility and do not align with the harsh realities faced by the population, such as frequent blackouts and high inflation. There is skepticism about the impact of such low growth on improving living standards.