United States Security Strategy 2025: Implications for Cuba's Regime

The administration under Donald J. Trump recently unveiled the National Security Strategy 2025 (NSS 2025), a pivotal document that reshapes U.S. global priorities by placing the Western Hemisphere at the forefront of foreign and defense policy for the first time in decades.

Presented by the White House in early December, this document marks a significant shift away from the globalist approaches of recent years, opening a new power dynamic with direct implications for Latin America—especially impacting the Cuban regime.

America First: A Hemispheric Approach

At the core of this new strategy lies a straightforward principle: the United States must prioritize its national interests and internal security above any international commitments.

The strategy asserts, "Our goal is to safeguard the fundamental national interests of the United States. This is the sole focus of this strategy."

The NSS 2025 characterizes this shift as a "welcome correction" after decades of so-called "strategic errors" by U.S. political elites who, according to the text, focused on distant wars and idealistic projects while neglecting their own hemisphere.

This document effectively revives an updated version of the Monroe Doctrine, which some analysts have dubbed the "Trump Corollary," aiming to prevent foreign powers—namely China, Russia, or Iran—from expanding their influence in Latin America and the Caribbean.

Returning to the "Backyard"

The message is clear: Washington is once again turning its gaze southward. The NSS 2025 views the presence of extra-hemispheric powers in Latin America as a direct threat to U.S. national security, especially when these actors have ties with authoritarian or anti-American regimes.

This stance has evident consequences for Cuba, Venezuela, and Nicaragua, the three regimes most closely aligned with Moscow, Beijing, and Tehran.

For Cuba, which has long relied on strategic alliances with Russia and China for survival, this new U.S. security doctrine signals escalating pressure manifesting across various intertwined fronts.

On the diplomatic and sanctioning front, Washington might toughen its stance on Havana, reactivating mechanisms for financial, commercial, and political isolation, akin to the international solitude of the 1990s.

This pressure would not only be economic but also symbolic, serving as a warning that the era of leniency and tepid dialogue is over.

Countering Foreign Influence

The strategy introduces a significant novelty in addressing "countering foreign propaganda operations and their echoes in the region," suggesting a potential communication and technological offensive in the Caribbean to curtail the narrative of the Castro regime and its allies, and to neutralize the misinformation machinery Moscow and Beijing have launched from Havana into Latin America.

Economically and logistically, the strategy targets the core of the regime's international alliances. It prioritizes preventing foreign powers from controlling "strategic hemisphere assets," encompassing everything from ports and energy facilities to technology networks.

In this context, Chinese cooperation in port infrastructure, submarine cables, or biotechnological projects in Cuba could come under scrutiny or even face sanctions. The message is clear: Washington will not allow the island to continue serving as an extension of Beijing and Moscow's interests in the Caribbean.

Rivals, Not Universal Enemies

Unlike previous strategies—such as those from 2017 and 2022—the NSS 2025 no longer labels Russia and China as universal threats in all scenarios. The new approach is more selective: Washington acknowledges competition but seeks to avoid perpetual confrontation.

However, this does not imply tolerance. In the Indo-Pacific, deterrence against China remains a priority, while in Europe, the White House suggests redistributing responsibilities within NATO, reducing the U.S. burden.

Analysts from the Center for Strategic and International Studies (CSIS) and the Foreign Policy Research Institute (FPRI) agree that this "hemispheric realignment" could open dialogue spaces with Russia—such as on nuclear control—but also intensify pressure on Moscow's Latin American allies.

For Havana's regime, this means indirect hardening: if Washington lessens its focus on Europe and the Middle East, it gains more political and operational leeway to concentrate on the Caribbean and Central America.

A Less Global, More Regional World

The NSS 2025 breaks with the tradition of "global leadership" that has characterized U.S. foreign policy since World War II. Trump makes it clear: it's not about rebuilding foreign democracies, but about protecting the U.S. republic from internal and regional threats.

The document emphasizes "reducing military commitments in low-priority regions" and strengthening U.S. industrial, energy, and scientific power to maintain supremacy. In essence, the nation is pulling back to strengthen from within—and projecting power only where it benefits.

In Europe, this partial withdrawal has already caused alarm. The strategy warns of a supposed "civilizational loss" on the continent and demands that European allies take greater responsibility for their defense. In other words, NATO will continue to exist but without Washington's financial and military support as before.

Reactions and Criticisms

Reactions have been swift. In Brussels and Berlin, the strategy is interpreted as a signal of U.S. retreat and a challenge to the Atlantic order.

In Beijing and Moscow, the reading is different: they see the document as confirmation of the decline of U.S. global hegemony, although they acknowledge that its military and economic influence in the Americas remains undeniable.

Meanwhile, in Tehran, the Iranian government denounced the NSS 2025 for "reinforcing Israel's dominance in West Asia" and labeled the document as an "instrument of regional imperialism."

Academically, experts from the Spanish Institute for Strategic Studies (IEEE) warn that the new policy could "fragment the international order and open a cycle of unstable multipolar competition" by weakening traditional cooperation mechanisms and replacing them with alliances of convenience.

American think tanks such as the Atlantic Council caution that the so-called "Trump Corollary" could provoke tensions and political crises in Latin America, especially in countries where Chinese or Russian influence merges with populist or authoritarian governments.

In their view, the revival of the Monroe-esque doctrine not only redefines Washington's foreign policy but could also spark a new era of diplomatic confrontations, cross-sanctions, and geopolitical realignments directly affecting regional stability.

Potential Scenarios for Cuba

In the landscape outlined by the new U.S. strategy, the future of the Cuban regime diverges into three possible paths intertwined with the pulse of hemispheric geopolitics.

The first scenario is one of total pressure, where Washington decides to tighten all screws: expanding sanctions, mobilizing regional diplomatic support, and seeking to align regional governments in a common strategy to isolate Havana.

Here, the aim would be to sever the financial, technological, and military ties that Castro maintains with Beijing and Moscow, reducing its maneuvering room to the point of political and economic suffocation.

The second path is one of tense balance, a mix of coercion and pragmatism. In this scenario, the U.S. would combine sanctions with economic and political incentives, trying to force the regime towards controlled opening or even fostering a leadership change that allows Washington to regain influence without triggering a sudden collapse.

This would be a strategy of calculated pressure, where each move seeks to unleash internal transformations without causing a large-scale humanitarian crisis.

Finally, there is the option of tense coexistence, where the Cuban regime manages to maintain its support network with China and Russia, clinging to multipolarity as an ideological and financial lifeline.

In this scenario, Havana would become a symbolic point of resistance within the new hemispheric board, while the U.S. would bolster its Caribbean presence through bases, investments, and alliances with like-minded governments.

This would be an unstable equilibrium, a prolonged game where neither side would fully yield, but both would accept that direct confrontation no longer serves: Cuba would continue to resist, and Washington would continue to await its natural erosion.

Any of these scenarios entail growing pressure on the Castro regime, which also faces an unprecedented economic crisis, tourism collapse, migration exodus, and internal loss of legitimacy.

Conclusion

The National Security Strategy 2025 is more than a bureaucratic document: it is the roadmap for a profound geopolitical shift.

It marks the return of the U.S. to the "backyard" it had left in the hands of China, Russia, and their local partners for years.

And it clearly indicates that Cuba is once again at the center of Washington's strategic priorities, not as a military threat, but as a symbol of foreign influence in the Americas.

In a world that is becoming more regional and competitive, the Havana regime will have to tread carefully: it no longer faces a distracted global adversary, but a powerful neighbor that has decided to look south once again.