The Minister of Energy and Mines, Vicente de la O Levy, has forecasted that 2026 will see marginal improvements in Cuba's energy sector, thanks to repairs at thermoelectric plants and an increase in solar power capacity. However, he cautioned that ongoing fuel shortages and the condition of the national electric system will continue to cause blackouts.
In an in-depth interview with the official newspaper Granma, de la O Levy stated that despite the integration of recently repaired thermoelectric plants and the expected completion of 1,000 MW of solar power this year, the energy situation will remain strained next year.
The official noted that the country will start the year with more operational infrastructure compared to 2025. Yet, he clarified that this capacity cannot be maintained without a stable fuel supply, which is currently lacking.
The minister detailed that units such as three and four at the Carlos Manuel Céspedes plant (Cienfuegos), unit five at Renté (Santiago de Cuba), and unit two at Ernesto Che Guevara (Santa Cruz del Norte) will be operational from January following extensive maintenance.
He also mentioned that at certain times in 2025, renewable energy sources met up to 30% of the demand. However, he emphasized that this contribution cannot make up for the prolonged fuel deficit.
Additionally, he reminded that the Antonio Guiteras plant in Matanzas will undergo a brief shutdown at the beginning of 2026, and the Felton plant in Holguín remains in an unstable state.
De la O Levy stressed that while the national electric system technically has more capacity than current demand, financial constraints limit necessary imports to sustain distributed generation, even though availability exceeds 80%.
He admitted that transmission and distribution networks continue to be a critical issue due to their deterioration and lack of resources.
The minister highlighted advances in the installation of solar parks and the receipt of international donations in 2025 but described the year as "tenacious" and extremely challenging.
Looking ahead, he was clear: there will be a moderate reduction in power outages, but blackouts will persist because the country lacks sufficient fuel to ensure stability.
The Unión Eléctrica (UNE) has predicted widespread blackouts this Friday, potentially affecting up to 61% of the national territory simultaneously during peak demand hours—a record-breaking figure in the island's ongoing energy crisis.
Cuban engineer Jorge Piñón, director of the Latin America and Caribbean Energy Program at the University of Texas, highlighted Wednesday's massive power outage that left several western provinces without electricity as the latest evidence of an "absolute collapse" in the electric system, with no real recovery prospects in the near term.
Piñón warned that Cuba's reliance on 25,000 to 30,000 barrels of Venezuelan oil daily is increasingly uncertain. "If Venezuela collapses and Cuba loses those 30,000 barrels, the outlook will be dire. 2026 will be worse," he told Martí Noticias.
In September, Piñón told CiberCuba that he saw no solution for 2026, predicting a "continuation" of the crisis with blackouts similar to those in 2024 and 2025. He reiterated that the government's promised solar parks are "a fairy tale," as without batteries, they only generate electricity during the day.
Understanding Cuba's Energy Challenges
What improvements are expected in Cuba's energy sector by 2026?
By 2026, Cuba anticipates slight improvements due to repairs at thermoelectric plants and increased solar power capacity, although blackouts will continue due to fuel shortages.
How reliant is Cuba on Venezuelan oil?
Cuba depends significantly on Venezuelan oil, receiving between 25,000 to 30,000 barrels daily, but this supply is increasingly uncertain, posing a risk to the country's energy stability.
Why can't solar energy fully address Cuba's energy needs?
Solar energy in Cuba is limited because, without battery storage, it only produces electricity during daylight hours, which is insufficient to cover the country's continuous energy demands.