Is the Cuban Regime Ready for a Post-Maduro Era?

For over twenty years, the fates of Cuba and Venezuela have been intertwined. When Fidel Castro and Hugo Chávez forged their political and energy alliance in the early 2000s, both regimes found in each other the perfect partner for survival.

Cuba contributed medical professionals, military advisors, intelligence instructors, and a resistance ideology against the United States. In return, Venezuela provided oil, financial backing, and diplomatic support in the region. This pact turned Havana into a significant player within the Chavista movement and breathed life into the Cuban regime after the Soviet collapse.

For years, the exchange of oil for technical and political personnel was presented as a model of solidarity cooperation. In reality, it built a structural dependency.

Energy Crisis Looming Over Cuba

Today, without Venezuelan oil, the Cuban economy is struggling. Widespread blackouts, industrial shutdowns, and a collapsing transportation system are visible signs of this fragility.

Should Nicolás Maduro fall, as more analysts are predicting, the consequences for Havana will be immediate: the island would lose its only stable energy source, destabilizing its already precarious balance.

Global Support Crumbling

The international landscape surrounding Cuba exacerbates its vulnerability. Allies that once provided political or economic cover are now in decline.

Russia, embroiled in its war with Ukraine, has significantly reduced its aid capacity. Promises of new oil shipments have faded due to the urgency of sustaining its military front and evading sanctions. The Kremlin is prioritizing its alliances with China and India, leaving little room for backing an island with no strategic return.

Meanwhile, Iran, which had attempted to forge closer ties with Havana and Caracas in recent years, is now stalled following joint attacks by the United States and Israel on its military and nuclear facilities. Commitments to technological and energy cooperation with Cuba have vanished as Tehran focuses on domestic issues.

Shifting Dynamics in Latin America

Latin America has also ceased to be an ideological haven. The progressive wave that dominated the region during the 2000s has given way to a new pragmatism.

The Brazil of Lula da Silva, once a staunch ally of Chavismo and Cuba, now avoids commenting on the Venezuelan crisis. Lula, aware of his country's economic weight and the need for stability, steers clear of ideological confrontations, effectively distancing himself through silence.

Likewise, Mexico, another traditional ally of Havana, faces direct pressure from Washington. The White House ties migration and trade agreements to a more critical stance against the Bolivarian axis. Though the Mexican president refrains from criticizing Havana and continues to send oil to the regime, Washington's watchful eye and influence cannot be ignored.

Cuban Government's Rhetorical Response

The Cuban government's response remains largely rhetorical. In recent statements, Foreign Minister Bruno Rodríguez Parrilla and Deputy Foreign Minister Carlos Fernández de Cossío reiterated the historical script of the so-called "revolution": denouncing "Yankee imperialism," condemning the "Monroe Doctrine," and appealing to the "sovereign right of peoples."

However, this discourse seems outdated. In today's hemisphere, even leftist Latin American governments prefer silence. No one openly supports Havana's narrative or echoes the classic anti-imperialist slogans.

A Nation at the Brink

The potential fall of Maduro could have politically, economically, and socially unpredictable consequences for Cuba. Oil supplies would be cut off, blackouts would worsen, and the country could enter a state of general paralysis.

The conglomerate GAESA, which controls the dollarized economy with extreme opacity regarding currency flows, would see its revenues plummet due to the loss of Venezuelan oil and reduced regional operations.

In civil society, exhausted by inflation, scarcity, and repression, discontent could spark a new wave of protests, now without the reverential fear that characterized previous decades.

The difference with the "Special Period" is that the Cuban people no longer live in information isolation. Social networks, communication platforms, and migration experiences have changed perceptions of the crisis.

The population no longer believes in heroic sacrifices or resistance slogans. Faced with a new collapse, the regime would confront a more informed and less docile society.

An Uncertain Future Without Allies

If Maduro falls, Havana would lose not only its energy source but also its primary political justification.

Chavismo has long been the ideological cover for Castrismo: evidence that resistance to U.S. power was still possible. Its disappearance would symbolically mark the end of an era. Without Venezuela, Cuba would be left without a mirror or narrative.

History repeats itself, but under worse conditions. When the Soviet Union collapsed, Havana still had Venezuelan oil and diplomatic leeway in Latin America. This time, there will be no refuge or subsidy. Neither Moscow, Beijing, nor Mexico will come to the rescue.

The Cuban regime is unprepared for Maduro's fall because it never learned to survive without a protector. Its economy, ideological apparatus, and political structure were designed to depend on others.

Today, that model reaches its limit. The world that sustained Castrismo has dissolved, leaving an isolated island trapped in its own discourse.