This Sunday, the informal dollar exchange rate in Cuba took a dip after a week of consistent increases. This change occurred just a day following the regime's announcement about "creating the conditions" for an "orderly, transparent, and functional official exchange market."
The timing of these events raises an inevitable question: did the announcement impact the rate reported by the independent outlet El Toque, or was it merely a typical adjustment in the informal market?
Subtle Decline Amid Political Tension
On Sunday, the dollar fell from 470 to 460 Cuban pesos (CUP), while the euro remained at 500 CUP, and the Freely Convertible Currency (MLC) increased to 220 CUP. Although the decline was slight, it carried symbolic weight after seven consecutive days of increases that had solidified the dollar's rise.
This shift aligns with the new official rhetoric from the Central Bank of Cuba (BCC), which aims to reassert state control over exchange rates, even as the informal market—monitored by El Toque—has become the primary real indicator of Cuba's economy.
Market Reaction or Expectation Manipulation?
Economists consulted by CiberCuba suggest that the BCC's announcement might have had a minor psychological impact on informal traders, leading to a temporary halt in the dollar's ascent. However, they caution that without foreign currency liquidity and public trust, no official market can sustain itself beyond paper declarations.
"The regime tries to project authority, but the informal market responds to real supply and demand, not speeches," one economist remarked to our editorial team. Other analysts believe the coincidence is more political than economic, and that Sunday's drop represents a natural correction after a week of speculative increases.
El Toque Under Fire
The supposed official market announcement also comes amidst a coordinated attack by the regime against El Toque, accused of "manipulating" the informal rate and "threatening the country's financial sovereignty." Paradoxically, its Informal Market Representative Rate (TRMi) remains the only reliable reference for millions of Cubans and private businesses both on and off the island.
Reality Overshadows Official Discourse
For now, the dollar's drop appears to be a pause rather than a trend reversal. Without concrete measures, foreign currency, and with public trust at its nadir, the regime's announcement is unlikely to have a lasting impact on the informal market's behavior.
In practice, Cubans will continue to rely on social networks, messaging groups, and El Toque's figures to determine the real value of their money.
Key Questions about Cuba's Exchange Market
What caused the recent drop in the informal dollar rate in Cuba?
The drop followed the regime's announcement of establishing an official exchange market, though it's debated whether this caused the change or if it was a natural market adjustment.
How significant was the dollar's decline?
The dollar fell from 470 to 460 CUP, a modest decrease but symbolically important after a week of gains.
Why is El Toque significant in Cuba's economy?
El Toque provides the Informal Market Representative Rate (TRMi), which is a critical reference for Cubans and businesses due to its reliability compared to official rates.