The noted historian and recipient of the National Meteorology Award, Luis Enrique Ramos, issued a warning on Monday about the risks associated with the eye of Hurricane Melissa, which is expected to impact eastern Cuba between Tuesday, October 28, and Wednesday, October 29, based on the latest forecasts.
Ramos, an honorary member of the Cuban Meteorological Society (SometCuba), highlighted that the provinces facing the highest threat include Santiago de Cuba and Holguín. However, the western part of Guantánamo and the eastern regions of Las Tunas and Granma will also experience the storm's effects.
"The hurricane will make landfall in Cuba during the night and early morning hours, a critical factor since many emergencies may need to be managed in complete darkness," the expert cautioned on the social media platform Facebook.
Beware the Hurricane's Eye
In a post titled "Regarding Melissa, Beware the Eye!", Ramos emphasized that the calm experienced within a hurricane's eye can be misleading and deadly if people mistakenly believe the danger has passed.
"Cuban history is filled with cases where individuals were caught off guard by the eye of the hurricane, interpreting the calm as the storm's end, only to be struck by the storm's second half," he noted.
The meteorologist elaborated on the "eye wall" — a towering wall of clouds encircling the system's center — which harbors the hurricane's most violent phenomena, including tornadoes, lightning, hail, and destructive wind gusts.
Extreme Winds, Rains, and Danger
According to Ramos, Melissa is an intense hurricane, with sustained hurricane-force winds extending 45 kilometers from the eye and tropical storm gusts reaching up to 120 km/h, covering a 315-kilometer radius.
"The wind will be the most hazardous factor in the area where the center passes," he warned, emphasizing that a 200 km/h gust can exert up to six tons of pressure on a standard wall.
The specialist urged the eastern population to remain disciplined, calm, and prepared, reminding them that "in all of Cuba, the current situation is named Melissa."
Melissa's Path and Potential Impact
Melissa continues to advance toward eastern Cuba as a formidable Category 5 system on the Saffir-Simpson scale, with sustained winds of 270 kilometers per hour and higher gusts, ranking it among the most intense cyclones to threaten the island in over a century.
Should it maintain its current strength upon landfall, Melissa could rival or even exceed the most powerful hurricanes in Cuban history, such as the 1924 and 1932 hurricanes, both Category 5 and considered the most devastating on record. The 1924 hurricane struck the west with estimated winds of 265 km/h, while the 1932 storm battered the central region with over 240 km/h, leaving thousands of casualties.
In contrast to those historical events, Melissa is heading towards eastern Cuba, a region that has not faced a direct impact of such magnitude and is characterized by more fragile infrastructure and already deteriorated basic services. Experts warn that the combination of extreme winds, storm surges, and torrential rains could cause catastrophic damage in provinces like Guantánamo, Santiago de Cuba, Holguín, Granma, Las Tunas, and Camagüey.
Historical data shows that Cuba's most destructive cyclones also include Hurricane Michelle (2001), which arrived as a Category 4 with 225 km/h winds; Hurricane Ivan (2004), which grazed the west as a Category 5; and Hurricane Flora (1963), known for its prolonged rainfall causing over 1,000 deaths, albeit with less intense winds.
Melissa, however, combines all elements of an extreme hurricane: sustained winds exceeding 250 km/h, a central pressure below 910 hectopascals, and a slow movement that heightens the risk of flooding and landslides. Meteorologists have described its behavior as "explosive intensification," potentially making it one of the most violent tropical systems in the Caribbean's recent history.
If its direct impact on Cuban territory with its present intensity is confirmed, Melissa would be the most powerful hurricane to hit the island since reliable records began. Civil Defense authorities have maintained the Cyclonic Alarm Phase in six eastern provinces, while rescue teams and electrical technicians prepare to respond once the storm's effects subside.
The country faces this new challenge amidst a complex context: widespread blackouts, resource shortages, and a limited communication network that could complicate the response to a major emergency. Forecasts suggest that Melissa's eye could approach the southeastern coast between Tuesday night and Wednesday morning, with a destructive potential that could leave a lasting mark on Cuba's meteorological memory.
Understanding Hurricane Melissa's Potential Impact on Cuba
What are the main threats posed by Hurricane Melissa?
The primary threats from Hurricane Melissa include extreme winds exceeding 250 km/h, torrential rains, storm surges, and the potential for catastrophic damage, particularly in eastern Cuba.
Which areas of Cuba are most at risk from Hurricane Melissa?
The provinces of Santiago de Cuba, Holguín, Guantánamo, Granma, Las Tunas, and Camagüey are most at risk, with the eastern region facing a significant threat due to its fragile infrastructure.
How does Hurricane Melissa compare to past storms in Cuban history?
Hurricane Melissa is poised to be one of the most intense storms to threaten Cuba in over a century, potentially comparable to the Category 5 hurricanes of 1924 and 1932, but targeting the eastern region.