The informal currency market in Cuba begins the week without fluctuations.
On this Monday, the U.S. dollar, the euro, and the Freely Convertible Currency (MLC) have maintained their prices for three consecutive days.
Since Friday, the dollar has been valued at 490 CUP.
The euro has held steady at 540 CUP since Thursday, while the MLC has remained at 200 CUP for several days. Despite pessimistic forecasts for the virtual currency created by the Cuban regime, it has managed to stay stable for now.
Exchange rate as of October 27, 2025 - 7:45 a.m. in Cuba: USD to CUP according to elTOQUE: 490 CUP.
EUR to CUP according to elTOQUE: 540 CUP.
MLC to CUP according to elTOQUE: 200 CUP.
The October report from Cuba's Observatory of Currencies and Finance (OMFi) suggests that the dollar might exceed 500 CUP if current extreme conditions persist.
The same forecast indicates that the euro could reach 551 CUP, while the MLC might rise to about 215 CUP.
The continuous increase of the dollar and euro in the Cuban informal market delivers a direct blow to the domestic economy.
elTOQUE Faces Coordinated Smear Campaign
Since October 22, a coordinated campaign has emerged on social media against the outlet elTOQUE, accusing it of causing the rise of the dollar in the informal market by publishing its Representative Market Rate (TRMI). Numerous fake and anonymous accounts on Facebook and WhatsApp have been detected sharing the image “No al TOQUE” without context or text, attempting to create a perception of widespread disapproval.
According to elTOQUE, this strategy mimics tactics previously used by the Cuban regime to attack independent media: "a mix of baseless accusations, fact manipulation, and coordinated dissemination on social networks."
Posts from groups linked to small and medium-sized enterprises and screen captures indicating the involvement of officials in Havana have also been observed, reinforcing the hypothesis of a non-spontaneous action.
elTOQUE emphasizes that the TRMI "does not cause market movements; it merely reflects the actual behavior of currencies based on digital supply and demand," and its methodology is public, verifiable, and supported by economists.
In response to false accusations that they are part of GAESA or an “external page,” the outlet reiterates that it is an independent project comprised of Cuban journalists in exile.
Impact on Cuban Households
The offensive occurs amid an acute crisis in Cuba, characterized by persistent devaluation, scarcity, and growing social unrest. “Far from discrediting us, such campaigns confirm the need for transparent, evidence-based information,” concludes elTOQUE.
In a context where most essential goods and services depend on foreign currency—either through imports or their sale in MLC—the 25-peso increase within just eight days immediately raises prices in the domestic market.
Each rise in the informal rate translates into higher costs of living: food, hygiene products, medicines, and even transportation or repair services become more expensive almost in tandem with currency rates.
For families reliant on state salaries or pensions, whose income remains fixed in Cuban pesos, this phenomenon means a rapid loss of purchasing power.
Meanwhile, households receiving remittances or managing foreign currency can maintain some level of consumption, widening the gap between those with access to dollars and those without.
This disparity fuels social tensions and drives many Cubans to seek alternative income sources—whether through the informal market, jobs abroad, or even emigration—as the only way to withstand economic deterioration.
The Broader Economic Implications
In broader terms, the rising cost of the dollar reflects a lack of confidence in the Cuban peso and ineffective measures to stabilize the national currency.
The increasing de facto dollarization further erodes the state's ability to control prices and plan the economy, while inflation feeds into a vicious cycle that primarily punishes the most vulnerable.
Currency Equivalences
U.S. Dollar (USD) to Cuban Peso (CUP) equivalence, based on exchange rates as of October 27:
1 USD = 490 CUP.
5 USD = 2,450 CUP.
10 USD = 4,900 CUP.
20 USD = 9,800 CUP.
50 USD = 24,500 CUP.
100 USD = 49,000 CUP.
Euro (EUR) to Cuban Peso (CUP) equivalence:
1 EUR: 540 CUP.
5 EUR = 2,700 CUP.
10 EUR = 5,400 CUP.
20 EUR = 10,800 CUP.
50 EUR = 27,000 CUP.
100 EUR = 54,000 CUP.
200 EUR = 108,000 CUP.
500 EUR = 270,000 CUP.
Meanwhile, Cubans are left wondering what happened to the "floating rate" announced by Manuel Marrero since late 2024, intended to bridge the gap between official and informal currency values.
Understanding Currency Dynamics in Cuba
Why is the dollar rising in Cuba's informal market?
The rise of the dollar in Cuba's informal market is due to economic instability, scarcity of foreign currency, and a lack of public confidence in the Cuban peso.
How does currency fluctuation affect Cuban households?
Currency fluctuation increases the cost of living, making it harder for families to afford essential goods and services, especially those reliant on fixed incomes in Cuban pesos.
What is the TRMI published by elTOQUE?
The TRMI is a representative market rate reflecting the real behavior of currencies based on digital supply and demand, published by elTOQUE to inform about the informal currency market trends.