The intensity of Hurricane Melissa continues to escalate, with winds now reaching 143 mph (230 km/h) and even higher gusts.
According to the 5 p.m. report from the U.S. National Hurricane Center (NHC), the eye of the storm is currently located at latitude 16.4 North and longitude 77.2 West.
This Category 4 hurricane on the Saffir-Simpson scale is progressing westward at approximately 5 mph (7 km/h). A slow westward movement is anticipated tonight, with a shift towards the north and northeast expected on Monday and Tuesday.
Melissa's core is projected to pass near or over Jamaica on Tuesday, then traverse southeastern Cuba by Tuesday night, and subsequently approach the southeastern Bahamas on Wednesday.
The NHC anticipates further strengthening over the next 24 hours or so, followed by potential fluctuations in intensity.
"Melissa is expected to remain a major, powerful hurricane as it makes landfall in Jamaica by Monday night or Tuesday morning, and southeastern Cuba by late Tuesday," the advisory cautions.
The hurricane boasts winds extending outward up to 30 miles (45 km) from the eye, with tropical storm-force winds reaching as far as 205 miles (335 km).
The estimated minimum central pressure is recorded at 941 mb (27.79 inches).
Heavy Rainfall and Storm Surge Threats
The forecast predicts total storm rainfall of 10 to 15 inches for eastern Cuba, with isolated totals reaching 20 inches, from Monday through Wednesday. This could lead to life-threatening flash floods and numerous landslides.
In addition, there is a significant potential for storm surge along Cuba's southeastern coast by late Tuesday or Wednesday.
Maximum storm surge heights might reach 6 to 9 feet above normal tide levels near and east of Melissa's landfall location. This surge will likely be accompanied by large and destructive waves.
Mass Evacuations in Cuba
In anticipation of Hurricane Melissa, over 650,000 people are set to be evacuated from eastern Cuba.
The Cuban government has announced the relocation of 258,573 individuals from Santiago de Cuba, approximately 69,000 from Holguín, 139,914 from Guantánamo, 72,000 from Las Tunas, and around 110,000 from Granma. These residents are advised to seek shelter with friends, family, or designated evacuation centers, as per a statement from the Cuban Presidency.
During a virtual session of the expanded Defense Council chaired by Miguel Díaz-Canel, it was revealed that in Santiago de Cuba, reservoirs like Protesta de Baraguá and Carlos Manuel de Céspedes are under close observation.
In Granma, the situation is complicated by rising rivers, overflowing reservoirs, and coastal flooding due to the nighttime high tide in the Golfo de Guacanayabo, which hampers natural water drainage. Consequently, 15% of the population, or 66,000 individuals, will be evacuated to centers.
Meanwhile, in Guantánamo, 30% of the population will be sheltered across 108 centers.
In Las Tunas, there are 133 evacuation centers available, with most evacuees staying with family and friends.
It was earlier disclosed that in the easternmost province, 108,000 evacuees would be accommodated by relatives and friends.
State media reports that 83 food preparation centers and 69 schools have been designated as evacuation centers in that province.
In Baracoa, 10,000 residents will be evacuated, as recent rains have disrupted mountain roadways, sewer systems, and the main bridge in the area.
Key Questions About Hurricane Melissa
What is the current strength of Hurricane Melissa?
Hurricane Melissa is currently a Category 4 hurricane with winds reaching 143 mph (230 km/h).
Which areas are expected to be affected by Hurricane Melissa?
Melissa is expected to impact Jamaica, southeastern Cuba, and the southeastern Bahamas.
What precautions are being taken in Cuba?
Cuba is evacuating over 650,000 people from eastern regions and monitoring reservoirs and potential flooding areas.
What are the potential risks associated with Hurricane Melissa?
Potential risks include life-threatening flash floods, landslides, and significant storm surges.