In the early hours of Sunday, the tropical system Melissa underwent a significant transformation. Within a short span, it intensified into a Category 4 hurricane on the Saffir-Simpson scale, with maximum sustained winds reaching 137 mph (220 km/h) and a central pressure of 953 hPa.
Currently positioned over the warm waters of the Caribbean Sea, south of Jamaica, Melissa is moving slowly at about 4 mph (6 km/h) westward. This slow movement, coupled with the atmosphere-ocean interaction, supports its further intensification. Forecast models now place it within a trajectory cone that includes eastern Cuba.
Cuban meteorologist Ailín Justiz reported at noon on Canal Caribe that "this system continues to pose a threat to eastern Cuba" and noted that "we now have it almost within the trajectory cone; it is becoming increasingly narrow."
She further cautioned that "these systems are not isolated events: we must consider the rain, hurricane-force winds, and also the effects on the sea," emphasizing the broad scope of the danger Melissa presents.
The Forecast Center of the Institute of Meteorology (INSMET) highlighted that the national protocol for monitoring tropical cyclones has been active for days. Justiz explained, “when months like October arrive, surveillance is not only focused on the Atlantic but also the Caribbean Sea, where these systems are more common.”
She added that "these dynamic phenomena change over various timeframes, sometimes even in the short term, resulting in shifts that alter the entire dynamic."
Technically, Melissa is fueled by a warm ocean layer exceeding 86°F (30°C), which provides a significant energy boost. This has allowed the hurricane to become more organized, with outer bands already impacting areas such as Haiti, the Dominican Republic, and southern Cuban waters, where rain and instability have been reported due to the system's circulation.
The forecast suggests that the storm will continue moving slowly west-west-northwest until Tuesday, expected to be near or over Jamaica's southern coast. From that point, it may turn northward and then northeast.
Eastern Cuba, particularly the provinces of Granma, Santiago de Cuba, and Guantánamo, should be on high alert due to the increasing swells and heavy rains already occurring in the southern region.
INSMET's recommendation, supported by expert Justiz, is clear: continuously monitor official reports, prepare in advance for potential wind, rain, and wave impacts, and do not wait until the last minute to take preventive action.
The slower the storm moves, the more time it has to gain strength, which could be a crucial factor.
Understanding Hurricane Melissa and Its Impact
What factors are contributing to Melissa's intensification?
Melissa's intensification is primarily due to its location over warm Caribbean waters, with temperatures exceeding 86°F (30°C), providing ample energy for strengthening.
Which areas are at greatest risk from Hurricane Melissa?
Eastern Cuba, particularly the provinces of Granma, Santiago de Cuba, and Guantánamo, is at significant risk due to expected heavy rains and increased wave activity.
How is the national protocol for monitoring cyclones being implemented?
The national protocol involves continuous monitoring and surveillance of tropical cyclones, with a focus on both the Atlantic and Caribbean Sea, to provide timely warnings and updates.