The National Hurricane Center (NHC) announced early this morning that Tropical Storm Melissa is rapidly gaining strength over the central Caribbean Sea, already showing signs of developing a defined eye.
Currently, the storm exhibits sustained winds of 68 mph and a central pressure of 986 mb, moving slowly northwest at 4 mph.
According to the advisory released at 5:00 a.m. (Miami time), Melissa is making a slow northwestward progression and could escalate to a Category 4 or even 5 on the Saffir-Simpson scale before Monday, with winds exceeding 155 mph.
"Rapid intensification models indicate a high likelihood of Melissa becoming a major hurricane within the next 48 hours," the NHC stated, warning that the system might retain much of its strength as it approaches eastern Cuba.
Increasing Threat for Cuba, Jamaica, and Hispaniola
NHC forecasts suggest that Melissa will impact Jamaica early next week as a high-intensity hurricane, leading to catastrophic flooding and landslides. Following this, the cyclone is expected to move over eastern Cuba between Wednesday and Thursday, potentially affecting provinces such as Guantánamo and Holguín, with risks of storm surges, destructive winds, and severe flooding.
"In eastern Cuba, the risk of flash floods and landslides is significantly increasing," cautioned the Miami-based agency.
Haiti and the Dominican Republic are also under threat from torrential rains and strong winds, particularly in their southern regions.
Projected Path
The latest NHC forecast cone positions Melissa as follows:
- Monday, October 27: South of Jamaica as a Category 4 hurricane.
- Wednesday, October 29: Making landfall in eastern Cuba as a major hurricane.
- Thursday, October 30: Moving toward the southeast Bahamas and the Turks and Caicos Islands, with some weakening.
A Potential Historic Hurricane
If forecasts hold true, Melissa could become the first major hurricane (Category 3 or higher) to strike Cuba in 2025, and one of the most powerful recorded in the region in recent years.
The NHC urges Cuban authorities and residents in the eastern regions to remain vigilant and start preparations immediately, in anticipation of a possible direct hit by mid-next week.
FAQs about Hurricane Melissa
How strong is Hurricane Melissa expected to get?
Hurricane Melissa is expected to reach Category 4 or possibly Category 5 strength, with wind speeds surpassing 155 mph.
Which areas are at greatest risk from Hurricane Melissa?
The areas at greatest risk include Jamaica, eastern Cuba, and parts of Haiti and the Dominican Republic, particularly their southern regions.
What precautions should residents of Cuba take?
Residents in eastern Cuba should stay informed and begin preparations immediately for potential severe impacts, including securing property and having an evacuation plan in place.