Meteorologist José Rubiera has issued a cautionary update regarding Tropical Storm Melissa, highlighting its imminent transformation into a hurricane. He emphasized that Jamaica is on the brink of experiencing severe winds and torrential rains, which could last for several days. As the storm progresses, the potential risk to Cuba is increasing, particularly during the early part of next week.
On his YouTube channel, Rubiera noted a significant probability—around 70%—that the storm system will pass over Cuba by Wednesday. However, he stressed that the precise path remains uncertain at this time.
Melissa is anticipated to reach hurricane status "by tomorrow night," with the potential to intensify swiftly as wind shear decreases between Friday and Saturday, as Rubiera explained.
Heavy rainfall, prolonged flooding, and strong winds are expected due to the proximity of the storm’s center and its slow movement.
Risk of Severe Weather Conditions
As the storm is caught by an upper-level trough and propelled northwest, its size will expand, offering different trajectory possibilities, including a passage through the western/central part of the island around Wednesday.
Rubiera reported that intense rain has already hit the southern regions of the Dominican Republic and Haiti in recent days, with accumulated rainfall exceeding 100 mm, leading to flooding. He warned that the storm's core will move towards Jamaica, where the sustained storm conditions could lead to flash floods, river overflows, and landslides.
Preparation Urged Across Cuba
Rubiera explained that while Melissa is currently disorganized, the conditions are becoming more favorable for it to strengthen as it approaches Jamaica. Eventually, an upper-air circulation could "capture" the hurricane and steer it rapidly towards the Atlantic, increasing its size and extent of wind and rain fields.
Given this uncertainty, Rubiera advised against relying solely on a single forecast track, as the storm could veer west or east of the predicted western/central Cuba path. Despite the undefined crossing point, he urged early preparations across a broad swath of Cuba—from the center to the west—due to the storm's potential acceleration and growth, which heightens the risks of strong winds, heavy rain, extended flooding, and rough seas along the southern coast.
Rubiera emphasized the importance of not underestimating the rain, which is the leading cause of fatalities during cyclones, and he encouraged closely monitoring official updates and being ready to implement protective measures if the forecast solidifies over Cuba.
He announced special update programs scheduled for tomorrow and Saturday to track the event's progression.
Meanwhile, the National Civil Defense Staff of Cuba released Information Note No. 1 regarding Tropical Storm Melissa this Friday. The storm continues to gain strength in the western Caribbean and might escalate to a Category 3 hurricane in the coming days before impacting the island.
The agency has declared the Informative Phase for the provinces of Guantánamo, Santiago de Cuba, Granma, Holguín, Las Tunas, and Camagüey starting at 2:00 p.m. today. This declaration is intended to prompt local authorities to begin preparing for the impending meteorological emergency.
The statement also indicated that Melissa has shown little movement over the Caribbean Sea waters in recent hours, remaining nearly stationary. However, its circulation is interacting with the trough, causing increased moisture and instability over the national territory.
Frequently Asked Questions about Tropical Storm Melissa
What is the current status of Tropical Storm Melissa?
Tropical Storm Melissa is on the verge of becoming a hurricane, with a high probability of affecting Jamaica and potentially Cuba in the coming days.
How is Cuba preparing for Tropical Storm Melissa?
Cuba's National Civil Defense has initiated the Informative Phase for several provinces, prompting authorities to prepare for potential emergency situations due to the storm.
What areas are most at risk from Melissa's impact?
The southern regions of Jamaica, the Dominican Republic, and Haiti have already experienced severe weather, and western/central Cuba is at risk if the storm continues on its current trajectory.