The United States' National Hurricane Center (NHC) announced on Friday afternoon that Tropical Storm Melissa continues to reorganize over the Caribbean Sea and is likely to strengthen significantly in the coming hours.
The official report at 2:00 p.m. Eastern Time placed the storm's center at 15.6° north latitude and 74.4° west longitude, approximately 230 miles southeast of Kingston, Jamaica, and 250 miles southwest of Port-au-Prince, Haiti.
Melissa is sustaining maximum winds of 59 mph with a minimum central pressure of 997 millibars, while it progresses east-southeast at a slow pace of just 2.5 mph.
"Melissa is in the process of reorganizing and is positioned to intensify substantially in the coming days," the NHC stated in its bulletin.
"Catastrophic rainfall and life-threatening flash floods are anticipated in southern Haiti and Jamaica over the weekend," the report emphasized.
The NHC forecast suggests Melissa could escalate to hurricane status by Saturday and transform into a major hurricane (Category 3 or higher) by Sunday, driven by the warm waters of the Caribbean Sea and a favorable atmospheric environment.
Potential Impacts and Warnings
The anticipated path of the storm indicates a slow move northward, then westward over the weekend, potentially passing near or south of Jamaica early next week and possibly approaching eastern Cuba between Tuesday and Wednesday.
The NHC cautioned that, despite some uncertainty in the exact path, eastern Cuba should remain vigilant as the system could strengthen and cause severe rain and flooding.
Jamaica might receive a hurricane warning in the coming hours if the system's rapid intensification is confirmed.
Rainfall and Flooding Concerns
Melissa could result in 10 to 20 inches of rainfall in southern Haiti and eastern Jamaica, with even higher amounts in mountainous regions.
In other areas of Haiti, the Dominican Republic, and southern Cuba, rainfall totals could range from 6 to 12 inches.
The NHC warns of sudden floods, landslides, and severe flood damage in both urban and rural areas. "Conditions could become catastrophic in southern Haiti," warns the official report.
Cuban Authorities on High Alert
Cuba's Institute of Meteorology (INSMET) is closely monitoring the system, which poses a potential threat to the provinces of Guantánamo, Santiago de Cuba, Granma, and Holguín if it maintains a northwest track.
The National Civil Defense Headquarters declared the Informative Phase on Friday for six provinces in the central and eastern parts of the country due to the potential for worsening weather conditions over the weekend.
Emergency agencies have urged residents to stay tuned to official reports and avoid spreading unverified information.
Understanding Tropical Storm Melissa's Impact
What is the current status of Tropical Storm Melissa?
Tropical Storm Melissa is reorganizing over the Caribbean Sea, with sustained winds of 59 mph and a potential to intensify into a major hurricane.
Which areas are most at risk from Melissa?
Southern Haiti and Jamaica face the greatest risk of catastrophic rainfall and flash floods, with eastern Cuba also needing to remain alert as the storm progresses.
How much rainfall is expected from the storm?
The storm could bring 10 to 20 inches of rain to southern Haiti and eastern Jamaica, with higher amounts possible in mountainous areas.