Tropical Storm Melissa is intensifying in the western Caribbean and may escalate into a major hurricane, potentially reaching Category 3 or higher, as it approaches eastern Cuba by mid-next week. This update was provided by the United States' National Hurricane Center (NHC) on Friday.
In a recent video update, NHC's Deputy Director Jamie Rhome highlighted that the latest models suggest Melissa could make landfall between the provinces of Granma and Santiago de Cuba. However, "the forecast cone has shifted slightly eastward," indicating that the storm's center might bypass Cuban territory.
According to NHC's advisory number 12, released Friday at 5:00 a.m. Eastern Time, Melissa is currently sustaining maximum winds of 75 km/h with a central pressure of 1003 millibars, moving slowly northward across the Caribbean Sea.
Melissa's nearly stationary movement is causing torrential rains over Jamaica and Haiti, posing risks of catastrophic floods and landslides.
"The heavy rainfall will lead to life-threatening flash floods and numerous landslides in southwestern Haiti and Jamaica," warned the NHC.
Impacts on Eastern Cuba
For eastern Cuba, meteorologists are predicting intense rainfall, hurricane-force winds, and storm surges beginning this weekend, with a heightened threat by Wednesday if the system continues to strengthen. The provinces of Guantánamo, Santiago de Cuba, Granma, and Holguín are expected to be the most affected.
The NHC noted that the warm Caribbean Sea temperatures and low wind shear conditions are conducive to rapid intensification of the storm over the next 48 to 72 hours, increasing the likelihood of it becoming a major hurricane before nearing Cuba.
Potential Major Threat to the Island
If this development is confirmed, Melissa would become the second major hurricane this Atlantic hurricane season to pose a direct threat to the island.
The Forecast Center of the Cuban Institute of Meteorology (INSMET) has stated that it is closely monitoring the system, which was last reported at 16.0° North latitude and 75.5° West longitude, about 260 kilometers south-southeast of Kingston, Jamaica.
The agency warned that Melissa poses "a potential danger to the region," particularly south of the Greater Antilles, where it could gain organization and intensity in the coming days.
Currently, Cuba is experiencing the influence of high surface pressures, with an upper-level trough causing rainfall in the eastern and central parts of the country.
Intense rainfall has been recorded along the northern coast of Guantánamo, with a maximum accumulation of 45 millimeters in the town of Jamal over the last 12 hours. Rainfall has been sparse elsewhere in the nation.
INSMET also reported that there is no expected tropical cyclone development in the rest of the Atlantic, Caribbean Sea, or Gulf of Mexico over the next 24 hours.
Frequently Asked Questions about Tropical Storm Melissa
What is the current status of Tropical Storm Melissa?
As of the latest update, Melissa is sustaining maximum winds of 75 km/h with a central pressure of 1003 millibars, moving slowly northward across the Caribbean Sea.
What areas are at risk due to Melissa?
Jamaica and Haiti are currently experiencing torrential rains with risks of floods and landslides. Eastern Cuba, including Guantánamo, Santiago de Cuba, Granma, and Holguín, is expected to face intense weather conditions starting this weekend.
Is Melissa expected to become a major hurricane?
Yes, the NHC forecasts that Melissa could rapidly intensify into a major hurricane due to favorable conditions such as warm sea temperatures and low wind shear.