Dr. José Rubiera, a renowned figure in Cuban meteorology, made a notable return to national television on Wednesday to issue a special warning regarding Tropical Storm Melissa's potential developments, as it remains stationary in the central Caribbean.
Although he typically shares his insights through his YouTube channel, Rubiera took to the TV screen to highlight the complex weather conditions that could unfold over Cuba in the coming days.
“Forecasting this is quite challenging,” he admitted at the outset, emphasizing the uncertainty surrounding the storm's path and progression.
He cautioned, however, that things could turn challenging for the island starting Sunday or Monday if the worst-case scenarios play out.
A Deceptive System
Rubiera pointed out that while satellite images might suggest Melissa is well-organized due to its dense cloud cover, the circulation center is actually misaligned with its convective core.
“It looks fine, but it's not,” he explained.
The expert attributed this to strong vertical wind shear at high atmospheric levels, which pushes the cloud mass eastward, separating it from the system's center.
As a result, “the column is tilted”—an inclined structure between the surface and higher levels—and until it can align vertically, the system cannot fully develop or intensify.
Moreover, without sufficient vertical height, the storm has not been "captured" by the trough currently located north of the Dominican Republic, also hindering its movement.
“Crossing through Haiti or the Dominican Republic doesn't seem likely,” Rubiera clarified.
Slow Movement Without Clear Direction
Melissa is moving at a sluggish pace, essentially rendering it nearly stationary.
This extreme slowness results from a lack of steering currents in its surroundings, meaning no forces are directing its path.
Consequently, the traditional probability cone used by meteorologists to indicate the potential future track is more like a circle in this case.
The wide array of solutions provided by weather models only adds to the forecast's complexity.
“There's uncertainty about the future path because Melissa currently lacks a guiding current,” Rubiera reiterated.
What Could Shift Melissa's Trajectory?
Dr. Rubiera mentioned that a significant shift in the system's behavior could occur by Sunday.
During that period, a reduction in vertical wind shear is expected, which would allow the circulation center and cloud mass to realign.
Under such conditions, Melissa could rapidly intensify. The western Caribbean Sea has a very high heat content, leading Rubiera to suggest that the storm could evolve not only into a hurricane but potentially into a major hurricane.
“Its intensity will literally explode when it reaches that area south of Cuba,” he warned.
With this strengthening, the system would also gain vertical structure and size, making it more susceptible to being influenced by large-scale weather systems.
The key, according to Rubiera, lies in a trough that will move from the southwestern United States by then. Unlike the current one, this trough could potentially "capture" Melissa.
“If it captures it, then the movement could veer north or northeast,” he explained.
And he added emphatically: “And what's to the north and northeast? There's Cuba. Therefore, this is a potential danger for our country.”
While the storm's definitive path remains uncertain, Rubiera urged for maximum vigilance and preparedness, especially between Sunday and Monday, when it will become clearer whether Melissa poses a direct threat to the national territory.
Urgent Call for Alertness Without Panic
The seasoned meteorologist concluded his appearance by reiterating the forecast's difficulty due to the numerous variables at play. However, he insisted that the risk should not be underestimated: Cuba needs to stay alert and ready for the possibility of a direct impact.
His return to television is not just a signal of potential meteorological danger but also a reminder that in times of uncertainty, Rubiera’s experience and guidance remain a reliable compass for Cubans.
National Hurricane Center's Perspective
Tropical Storm Melissa continues its slow journey over the central Caribbean Sea and could escalate to hurricane status within the next 48 hours.
As of 5:00 a.m., Melissa's center was located at latitude 15.0N and longitude 74.9W, approximately 390 km south-southeast of Kingston, Jamaica, and 485 km southwest of Port-au-Prince, Haiti.
It moves slowly west-northwest at 6 km/h, maintaining sustained winds of 85 km/h.
While its center is not heading directly toward Cuba, the island's east could face heavy rains and strong waves, as warned by the United States National Hurricane Center (NHC).
Although Cuba is not under an official storm or hurricane alert, the NHC emphasizes that eastern sectors of Cuba, including provinces like Guantánamo, Santiago de Cuba, and Granma, could experience the waves generated by Melissa in the coming days.
This phenomenon poses risks for small vessels, low-lying coastal areas, maritime infrastructure, and fishing activities, besides increasing the potential for erosion on south-facing beaches.
There is also a warning about possible rains associated with the storm's outer bands, especially in the eastern provinces, although the intensity will depend on its trajectory's evolution over the next 48 to 72 hours.
FAQs About Tropical Storm Melissa and Its Impact on Cuba
What is the current status of Tropical Storm Melissa?
As of now, Tropical Storm Melissa is stationary in the central Caribbean Sea with a slow west-northwest movement. It could develop into a hurricane within the next 48 hours.
Is Cuba expected to be directly impacted by Melissa?
While Melissa is not currently on a direct path to Cuba, the island's eastern regions may experience heavy rains and significant wave activity due to the storm's influence.
What precautions should Cuban residents take?
Residents, especially in eastern Cuba, should remain vigilant and prepared for potential weather impacts, such as heavy rainfall and coastal flooding, and follow updates from local authorities.