Melissa Poised to Become a Major Hurricane South of Cuba

Tropical Storm Melissa is showing signs of reorganizing over the warm waters of the central Caribbean and could escalate to a major hurricane (Category 3 or higher) by the weekend as it heads toward the area south of Cuba. The latest update from the National Hurricane Center warns that the projected path scenarios have grown more perilous for the island, with a shift that could steer the system further into the Caribbean after passing south of Jamaica.

The advisory notes that although Melissa currently appears disorganized, gradual strengthening is expected, with the system potentially reaching hurricane status by Friday. Rapid intensification could elevate it to a major hurricane by Sunday. The updated trajectory places the center more to the south of Jamaica, increasing the risk for Cuba over the coming days.

Reconnaissance aircraft from the Air Force Reserve pinpointed Melissa's center near 14.3°N, 74.0°W, moving very slowly westward at 2 mph (4 km/h). Maximum sustained winds are around 50 mph (85 km/h), with higher gusts, and the minimum estimated pressure is 1,000 mb. Tropical storm-force winds extend up to 115 miles (185 km) from the center.

In the short term, the forecast anticipates a slow advancement with a gradual turn to the northwest and north over the next two days, followed by a westward shift during the weekend. Along this path, Melissa is projected to approach Jamaica and southwestern Haiti by the end of the week, then proceed over the western Caribbean with increased organization and intensity.

The system is already linked to heavy rains with the potential for floods and landslides in parts of Hispaniola (Haiti and the Dominican Republic) and Jamaica throughout the rest of the week. With a more southerly projection and a favorable oceanic environment, the trajectory forecasts have become "more dangerous for Cuba," particularly for the western and central-southern regions if wind fields and rain bands expand as the weekend approaches.

Although not yet a hurricane, the combination of extremely warm waters, slow movement, and improved organization supports sustained strengthening. The updated path—more entrenched in the Caribbean and south of Jamaica—increases Cuba's exposure in the short to medium term, prompting recommendations to follow official reports and consider preparedness measures in areas vulnerable to heavy rains, winds, and storm surges.

The Forecast Center of the Cuban Institute of Meteorology (INSMET) issued Tropical Cyclone Warning No. 3 on the morning of Wednesday, October 22, alerting that despite Melissa's slow movement over the central Caribbean Sea, the system poses a "potential danger" to the island, necessitating close monitoring of its evolution.