The U.S. dollar continues its upward trajectory in Cuba's informal market, marking the sixth consecutive day of increased rates this Tuesday. The dollar is now valued at 478 CUP, reflecting a three-peso rise from the previous day. Since October 16, the dollar has appreciated by 18 pesos over a six-day period. This surge has narrowed the gap between the dollar and the euro, which remains significantly higher, at 530 CUP.
In recent days, the Freely Convertible Currency (MLC) has maintained its value, averaging 200 CUP. As of October 21, 2025, at 6:03 a.m. in Cuba, exchange rates reflect the following: the USD to CUP rate according to elTOQUE stands at 478 CUP, the EUR to CUP at 530 CUP, and the MLC to CUP at 200 CUP.
The October report from Cuba's Observatorio de Monedas y Finanzas (OMFi) suggests that Cubans are turning to strong currencies to shield themselves from inflation, conduct business, or simply survive. The OMFi predicts that if the current extreme conditions persist, the dollar could surpass 500 CUP before the month's end. Additionally, the euro might reach 551 CUP, and the MLC could rise to 215 CUP.
The national production decline, exacerbated by the energy crisis and scarcity of supplies, has forced small and medium enterprises to source materials abroad, increasing their demand for foreign currency. This has intensified competition in the informal market among businesses, consumers, and traders. Simultaneously, there is an increasing outflow of capital, with more people relying on cryptocurrencies or foreign accounts to safeguard their income, driven by widespread mistrust in the government's ability to implement stabilizing policies.
The surplus of unsupported pesos in circulation, combined with the failure of the banking process, has encouraged the immediate conversion of pesos into foreign currencies. The lack of faith in the national currency and the perception that the crisis has no short-term resolution are reinforcing this defensive behavior. This speculative trend has accelerated with the belief that the peso's value is diminishing daily.
Furthermore, the persistent decline in tourism has severely impacted the inflow of fresh foreign currency into the country. The reduced influx of dollars through tourism exacerbates the imbalance between the supply and demand for foreign currency. As of October 21, the equivalency of U.S. dollar bills to Cuban pesos is as follows: 1 USD = 478 CUP, 5 USD = 2,390 CUP, 10 USD = 4,780 CUP, 20 USD = 9,560 CUP, 50 USD = 23,900 CUP, and 100 USD = 47,800 CUP.
In terms of euro to CUP conversion: 1 EUR = 530 CUP, 2 EUR = 1,060 CUP, 5 EUR = 2,650 CUP, 10 EUR = 5,300 CUP, 20 EUR = 10,600 CUP, 50 EUR = 26,500 CUP, 100 EUR = 53,000 CUP, 200 EUR = 106,000 CUP, and 500 EUR = 265,000 CUP.
Meanwhile, Cubans are questioning the fate of the "floating rate" announced late in 2024 by Manuel Marrero, intended to bridge the gap between official and informal currency values.
Understanding the Currency Crisis in Cuba
Why is the U.S. dollar rising in Cuba's informal market?
The U.S. dollar is rising due to increased demand for strong currencies amidst inflation, economic instability, and a decline in national production.
What impact does the falling tourism have on Cuba's currency market?
Falling tourism reduces the inflow of foreign currency, worsening the imbalance between the supply and demand for foreign exchange, and contributing to the rise in dollar value.
How are small and medium enterprises in Cuba affected by the currency crisis?
These enterprises face challenges sourcing materials locally due to production declines, driving them to seek resources abroad, thereby increasing their need for foreign currency.