Potential Cyclone Development Expected from Tropical Wave in Eastern Caribbean

The National Hurricane Center (NHC) is closely monitoring an active tropical wave in the eastern Caribbean Sea, which has the potential to evolve into a cyclonic system in the coming days, despite uncertainties regarding its future path. As per the advisory issued at 8:00 a.m. Eastern Time on Monday, October 20, the phenomenon, identified as AL98, has an 80% probability of cyclonic development within the next seven days and a 50% chance within the next 48 hours.

The wave is currently moving westward at a speed of 15 to 20 miles per hour and is expected to slow down as it approaches the central Caribbean. The NHC detailed that the wave is generating a wide area of showers and thunderstorms to the east of its main axis, and atmospheric conditions are anticipated to become more conducive for its development in the days ahead. If it intensifies, it could transform into the next tropical depression or storm before the weekend, marking a significant event in the current hurricane season.

"We continue to monitor the tropical wave AL98 in the eastern Caribbean, which has a high probability (80%) of cyclonic development in the upcoming days as it moves slowly toward the central Caribbean," the NHC stated on its official X account. Although heavy rains and strong winds are beginning to taper off over the Windward and Leeward Islands, the agency warned that these conditions might extend to the ABC islands (Aruba, Bonaire, and Curaçao) in the coming days.

In the "Meteorología_Cuba" Facebook group, specialist MSc. Álvaro Pérez Senra elaborated on the uncertainty surrounding the system's trajectory. "The FNV3 model shows two potential scenarios: an initial recurve, leading either to the system being captured by a trough and heading northeast, or failing to be dragged, it remains without steering currents, moves again to the west or northwest, and then makes another recurve in the western Caribbean," he explained. Pérez highlighted the challenges in predicting its final course due to expected atmospheric changes throughout the week.

Experts agree that no definitive path has been established yet and that its development will rely on upper-level currents and interaction with a trough north of the Caribbean. As of now, the system does not pose a direct threat to Cuba, but meteorologists advise staying alert to its progress. October is typically an active month in the Atlantic hurricane season, and NHC forecasts suggest that favorable conditions for storm development will persist in the region.