A significant number of Cubans expect the value of the dollar to continue its upward trajectory in the informal market, potentially hitting 500 Cuban pesos (CUP) before the year concludes. This sentiment was captured in a survey conducted by CiberCuba Noticias on social media platforms.
Out of 2,305 respondents, a substantial 86% predicted that both the dollar and the euro would either reach or exceed this threshold in the coming months. Meanwhile, 7% believed only the euro would hit 500, and 5% felt neither currency would reach that mark. A mere 2% foresaw only the dollar climbing to the 500 CUP milestone.
The expectations among Cubans underscore the ongoing devaluation of the peso, plagued by issues such as inflation, a fiscal deficit, and a shortage of foreign currency within the national economy. On the ground, exchange rates in street transactions significantly surpass the official rates set by the government, which has been unable to rein in the currency market.
In responses to the survey, many users voiced their pessimism regarding the economic situation. One reader commented, "This is unstoppable; it rises every day," while another remarked, "As long as there's no production or dollars flowing in, it will keep climbing."
Economists speaking to the independent outlet El Toque mentioned that "the floating rate will alter expectations, bringing more uncertainty in the coming months due to the market's inherent nature." They added that while they don't believe the rate will reach 500, it is likely to come close.
This mounting uncertainty reinforces the forecast that the Cuban peso will continue to lose value throughout the remainder of 2025, amid an environment marked by an energy crisis, shortages, and an economic downturn acknowledged by the authorities themselves.
Understanding the Cuban Currency Crisis
Why is the Cuban peso depreciating so rapidly?
The rapid depreciation of the Cuban peso is largely due to rampant inflation, a fiscal deficit, and a severe shortage of foreign currency in the economy, compounded by the government's failure to stabilize the currency market.
What are the public's expectations for the dollar and euro rates?
A majority of the public expects the dollar and euro to reach or even surpass 500 CUP in the near future, reflecting widespread anticipation of continued currency devaluation.
How are street exchange rates compared to official rates?
Street exchange rates significantly exceed the official rates set by the government, highlighting the gap between market realities and governmental controls.