On Monday, tensions between Moscow and the North Atlantic Treaty Organization (NATO) intensified as the Kremlin declared that NATO is "de facto" at war with Russia. This announcement follows a series of Russian drone incursions into Polish airspace and provocative statements from high-ranking Russian officials. Kremlin spokesperson Dmitri Peskov asserted during a regular phone briefing, "NATO is at war with Russia. This is obvious and requires no additional proof." He explained that the direct and indirect military aid provided by the West to Ukraine constitutes active participation in the armed conflict.
These claims emerge amid a spike in tensions across Eastern Europe, following last week's incident where several Russian drones breached Polish airspace. Although Moscow has neither confirmed nor denied its responsibility, it expressed willingness to investigate the matter, emphasizing that it does not seek military escalation.
Warnings from Russian Officials
Meanwhile, Dmitri Medvedev, former Russian president and current deputy chairman of the Security Council, issued a stark warning via his Telegram channel. He stated, "Establishing a no-fly zone over Ukraine by NATO, along with the downing of our drones, would mean a NATO war with Russia," describing the proposal from Kyiv as "provocative" and led by "idiots." Medvedev also threatened retaliation should Russian state assets frozen in Europe be transferred to Ukraine as part of a war reparations loan, vowing to pursue those responsible in all available courts, and, in some cases, beyond.
NATO's Military Reinforcement and Diplomatic Moves
Russia's reaction came after NATO Secretary General Mark Rutte announced ‘Eastern Sentinel,’ a plan to bolster defense on the Alliance's eastern flank. This operation will involve deploying F-16s, Rafales, Eurofighters, and warships from countries like Denmark, France, Germany, and the United Kingdom. Rutte highlighted that the events in Poland represented "the largest concentration of NATO airspace violations ever seen" and stressed it was not an isolated incident.
In Kyiv, there is growing pressure to authorize the shooting down of Russian drones before they enter allied territories, a scenario the Kremlin warns could lead to a direct confrontation with unpredictable outcomes.
Post-Alaska Summit Tensions
The current verbal and military escalation between Russia and the West follows the summit between Donald Trump and Vladimir Putin in Alaska on August 15. Although the meeting was described as "productive" by the U.S. president, no concrete agreements or significant progress were announced to end the conflict in Ukraine. The summit marked Putin's first visit to U.S. soil since the large-scale invasion in 2022 and was viewed more as a symbolic gesture than a substantial diplomatic shift.
Shortly thereafter, Moscow intensified its drone and missile attacks on Ukraine, resulting in unprecedented death and destruction, leaving analysts, who anticipated de-escalatory moves by Putin, perplexed. Instead, recent Russian drone incursions into Polish airspace led to condemnation from Warsaw, a reinforcement of NATO’s eastern defense, and a renewed debate over greater allied involvement in containing Russia militarily.
Economic Pressure and Joint Military Exercises
In response to these incidents, Trump toughened his stance with NATO allies, demanding they cease purchasing Russian oil and impose tariffs of up to 100% on China unless Beijing halts its crude acquisitions from the Kremlin. These statements, made following the aerial incursion in Poland, introduce unprecedented conditionality among Atlantic Alliance partners and reflect an economic pressure strategy that, under the guise of isolating Moscow, presents new — and challenging — demands on NATO allies, serving as a pretext for further delaying action against Putin.
Simultaneously, joint military exercises known as Zapad-2025 are underway in Belarus and Russia, raising alarm among NATO's eastern flank countries. Officially labeled as defensive, analysts point to the use of advanced weaponry — including hypersonic systems and potential nuclear missiles like Oreshnik — troop movements near the Polish border, and the deployment of elite Russian units as warning signs. Notably, the presence of U.S. military officers observing the Zapad-2025 exercises adds to the diplomatic confusion, marking the first recorded American representation in Russian maneuvers.
Key Questions on Russia-NATO Relations
What prompted Russia to declare itself at war with NATO?
Russia's declaration came after a series of drone incursions into Polish airspace and statements highlighting Western military aid to Ukraine as active participation in the conflict.
How has NATO responded to the drone incidents?
NATO has announced the ‘Eastern Sentinel’ operation to strengthen its eastern defenses, involving the deployment of fighter jets and warships from several member countries.
What are the potential consequences of a direct confrontation between NATO and Russia?
A direct confrontation could lead to an unpredictable escalation in military conflict, given the current tensions and military capabilities on both sides.