Jorge Piñón, Expert from the University of Texas: "Cuba's Power Outage Crisis Likely to Persist Beyond 2026"

Jorge Piñón, a researcher at the University of Texas Energy Institute, sees no end in sight for Cuba's ongoing energy crisis. He forecasts that by 2026, Cubans will still face the same power outages that they endure today in 2024 and 2025. Piñón criticizes the regime's strategy of promoting 50 solar parks as a solution, dismissing it as a "fairy tale" since, without batteries, they can only supply electricity during daylight hours.

The University of Texas professor stresses that Cuba's energy crisis is a deep-rooted structural issue. Recent calculations by his students suggest that resolving this crisis could take three to five years, requiring an investment of $8 billion to $10 billion. Piñón also warns that if Cuba loses the oil supply from Venezuela and Mexico, it will have to purchase oil on the market at an estimated annual cost of $2.2 billion. The situation could worsen due to two significant flaws in Cuba's electrical system: outdated infrastructure and the government's inability to secure investment funds.

Challenges in Cuba’s Energy Infrastructure

"Currently, only short-term fixes and patches are being applied," Piñón explains. "The reality is that Cuba's electricity problem is systemic and can only be addressed in the long run, possibly taking 3 to 5 years and costing between $8 billion and $10 billion." He notes that Cuba's thermoelectric plants, over 40 years old, have suffered from insufficient maintenance, both operational and capital, and burn highly corrosive Cuban crude oil, rich in sulfur and vanadium. This creates a vicious cycle of temporary fixes and destructive fuel use.

"The Cuban electrical sector is like an 'almendrón,' a vintage car that can only be temporarily fixed with band-aids but is structurally incapable of competing on a global scale," Piñón says. He sees no viable solutions in thermoelectric plants, power generators, or domestic crude oil production.

The Futility of Current Renewable Energy Efforts

Piñón points out the inefficacy of current renewable energy projects, such as the stalled La Herradura wind project, which has been inactive for over a decade, and the lack of sugarcane biomass due to insufficient sugarcane production. "How can we expect biomass to contribute to Cuba's national electricity future?" he questions. He acknowledges the potential of solar energy but criticizes the execution of these projects, emphasizing that without substantial battery infrastructure, they won't solve the structural problems.

Despite enthusiasm for new solar parks in places like Cabaiguán, Matanzas, and Guantánamo, Piñón argues that the government's promotional tactics have only heightened public expectations without providing real solutions. "Solar energy is applauded, but the current execution won't address Cuba's present structural challenges," he asserts. He notes the contrast with a 700 MW solar park near Houston, equipped with 250 MW of batteries, capable of 24/7 operation.

Outlook for Cuba's Energy Future

In response to a question from CiberCuba about what Cubans can expect in 2026, Piñón predicts "a continuation of the current problem." He acknowledges Cuba's efforts with solar energy but criticizes the "shotgun strategy" of scattered solar parks without batteries, limiting their operation to daylight hours. He also highlights the stalled biomass plant in Ciro Redondo, built with $180 million from China but underutilized due to a lack of sugarcane. "How can we harness the energetic power of sugarcane, like Brazil, which generates 16% of its electricity from sugarcane biomass?" he asks. Concluding, Piñón sees no solution by 2026.