The National Hurricane Center (NHC) issued a monitoring update on Monday regarding a tropical wave situated in the eastern Atlantic, south-southeast of the Cape Verde Islands. According to the agency, this system is currently producing scattered areas of rain and thunderstorms. However, the environmental conditions in the area might support a gradual development over the coming days.
The NHC has assessed the chance of this system developing into a cyclone at 10% over the next 48 hours, but this probability increases to 50% within a week. If it becomes more organized, the tropical wave could evolve into a tropical depression by the middle or end of the week.
Currently, the disturbance is moving west to west-northwest at approximately 15 mph (24 km/h) across the central and eastern tropical Atlantic waters. Given its potential path, meteorologists are keeping a close watch, and residents of Cuba and other Caribbean nations are advised to stay alert.
Additionally, a Cuban meteorologist highlighted on Monday that September is typically the most active period of the hurricane season, urging heightened caution. Christian Jesús Muñiz Carrillo noted on Facebook that between 1950 and 2023, nine hurricanes have made landfall in Cuba during September. These storms include Easy (1950), Hilda (1955), Ella (1958), Inez (1966), Georges (1998), Isidore (2002), Ike (2008), Irma (2017), and Ian (2022).
Irma holds the record as the only category 5 hurricane to strike the island with such force. Hurricane Ella was the earliest, arriving on September 1, while Inez was the latest, hitting on September 30. Both Ike and Irma made landfall on September 7 at nearly identical times, around 9:00 and 10:00 p.m., respectively, as the expert recalled.
Understanding the Atlantic Tropical Wave Threat
What is the current probability of the tropical wave developing into a cyclone?
The probability of the tropical wave developing into a cyclone is 10% in the next 48 hours, rising to 50% over the next seven days.
Why should residents of Cuba and the Caribbean stay alert?
Due to the potential path of the tropical wave and its chance of development, residents are advised to remain vigilant for any updates and prepare for possible severe weather conditions.
Which hurricanes have historically impacted Cuba in September?
Notable hurricanes that have impacted Cuba in September include Easy (1950), Hilda (1955), Ella (1958), Inez (1966), Georges (1998), Isidore (2002), Ike (2008), Irma (2017), and Ian (2022).