Renowned Cuban meteorologist José Rubiera has issued a warning to closely monitor the development of two tropical systems in the Atlantic, both showing significant potential for cyclonic activity. In a video shared this Tuesday on his YouTube channel, Rubiera emphasized the importance of paying particular attention to the system currently positioned closer to Africa, suggesting it may become more organized in the coming days.
Monitoring Two Key Systems: 99L and a Central Atlantic Wave
While discussing Erin, which poses no threat to Cuba but may cause strong surf along the eastern United States, Rubiera highlighted two areas of interest in the Atlantic: “We have two significant systems in the Atlantic. One is centrally located, lower in latitude, and the other is further away, moving south of the Cape Verde Islands—this system is under investigation as 99L,” Rubiera explained.
The system known as 99L, positioned southwest of the Cape Verde Islands, is classified as an "area of investigation," meaning it is under close scrutiny by meteorological agencies. Despite lacking a defined circulation, it exhibits active rain and thunderstorms, indicating potential for further development. “When a system is under investigation, it receives much more attention,” Rubiera noted. “It has embedded areas of strong storms, even though it’s still a tropical wave. This system could see more long-term development,” he added.
The other tropical wave, located more centrally in the Atlantic, is currently less organized but remains under observation. According to Rubiera, vigilance is crucial especially between the end of this week and the beginning of the next, a period when significant changes could occur in both systems.
Favorable Conditions for Cyclonic Development
The Cuban expert warned that both atmospheric and oceanic conditions are ripe for cyclone development: “Given the time of year and warm sea conditions, it’s important to keep a watchful eye in the coming days,” he emphasized.
Factors increasing the likelihood of cyclone formation include warmer-than-usual sea temperatures, a significant reduction in Sahara dust, and low levels of dry air in the atmosphere. “The population, especially in the Caribbean, should stay alert as systems moving at lower latitudes typically have trajectories that can greatly impact our region,” Rubiera stressed. Cyclones forming at low latitudes tend to move westward, potentially affecting the Lesser Antilles, the Caribbean, and eventually Central America or the Gulf of Mexico.
National Hurricane Center's Assessment
The United States National Hurricane Center (NHC) released a bulletin on Wednesday detailing the development probabilities for both systems in the upcoming days:
1. Near the Leeward Islands (central Atlantic tropical wave):
- Probability of formation in 48 hours: low (10%).
- Probability of formation in 7 days: medium (60%).
This tropical wave continues to generate disorganized showers and thunderstorms but could strengthen into a tropical depression by the weekend as it nears the northern Leeward Islands.
2. AL99 - Southwest of Cape Verde:
- Probability of formation in 48 hours: medium (40%).
- Probability of formation in 7 days: medium (40%).
While conditions are only marginally favorable for its development, there is potential for it to become a short-lived tropical depression. However, by the end of the week, conditions might become unfavorable for further intensification.
Understanding Tropical Systems and Their Impact
What is the significance of a system being under investigation?
A system under investigation, like 99L, is closely monitored due to its potential to develop into a more organized storm, indicating a higher likelihood of cyclonic activity.
Why are the current atmospheric conditions favorable for cyclone formation?
Current conditions such as warmer sea temperatures, reduced Sahara dust, and low levels of dry air create an environment conducive to cyclone formation.
How might these systems impact the Caribbean?
Systems forming at low latitudes often move westward, potentially impacting the Caribbean, Lesser Antilles, and even Central America or the Gulf of Mexico.