After weeks of alarmingly high electricity deficits, sometimes exceeding 2,000 megawatts (MW), Cuba's Electric Union (UNE) reported a notable reduction in the forecasted shortages for the day on Saturday. According to the official report, the peak deficit reached 1,633 MW at 8:30 PM yesterday, aligning with the highest demand period. For today, the peak deficit is estimated at 1,450 MW, with a projected impact of 1,520 MW.
While technical factors like the partial reactivation of Unit 5 at the Nuevitas Power Plant, contributing 60 MW, could explain the decrease, many Cubans suspect this temporary relief is linked to the upcoming centennial of dictator Fidel Castro's birth. The regime frequently undertakes extensive propaganda efforts during such commemorative times.
This isn't the first occasion when "improvements" in the electrical service coincide with political anniversaries or official visits. In stark contrast to recent days like August 6, when the country suffered a deficit exceeding 2,000 MW, today's availability at 6:00 AM was 2,090 MW against a demand of 2,624 MW, with only 580 MW affected at that time.
Despite these figures, the fundamental causes of the energy crisis remain unaddressed: two thermal units are broken, three are under maintenance, 441 MW are offline due to thermal limitations, and 59 distributed generation plants are inactive due to fuel shortages.
The partial relief in numbers contrasts with the growing discontent toward the UNE, which recently faced a barrage of criticism for posting a tribute to Castro on social media amidst blackouts. Many citizens demanded that the state-run company "stick to reporting megawatts" and keep politics out of a basic service that has grown increasingly unreliable under Miguel Díaz-Canel's government.
The coincidence between the slight improvement in supply and the approach of Castro's centennial on August 13 fuels speculation. As the regime readies for a commemorative agenda, including massive events and media coverage, Cubans wonder if the current respite will extend beyond the anniversary or if, as often happens, the country will plunge back into darkness once the propaganda subsides.
A Temporary Relief Amidst Darkness
The forecasted 1,520 MW impact today contrasts with the figures that have marked the summer: days exceeding 2,000 MW like July 22 (2,054 MW), July 15 (2,020 MW), and August 6 (2,010 MW), or near peaks like August 5 (1,952 MW) and August 4 (1,862 MW). Even on days with lower values, such as August 3 (1,675 MW) or August 2 (1,744 MW), power interruptions affected almost the entire country.
In this context, today's figure, although objectively high and capable of leaving vast areas without electricity for hours, is perceived by many Cubans as a relative improvement. The normalization of blackouts has reached such an extent that any reduction, however minimal, provides a sense of relief, despite the deficit remaining incompatible with stable electrical service.
This phenomenon, resulting from years of energy crisis and unfulfilled promises, reveals a dangerous societal resignation. The population no longer expects an uninterrupted electrical system but settles for shorter or fewer days without power.
The proximity of politically significant dates adds a speculative dimension: many suspect that this temporary decrease is more about the regime's desire to project stability during official events than actual improvements in the National Electric System. If previous years' patterns hold, the relief could vanish as soon as the anniversary passes, plunging the country back into its usual darkness.
Understanding Cuba's Electricity Crisis
What caused the recent reduction in Cuba's electricity deficit?
The recent reduction can be partly attributed to technical factors, such as the partial reactivation of Unit 5 at the Nuevitas Power Plant, which contributed an additional 60 MW. However, many believe it is also linked to the regime's efforts to create a more favorable image ahead of Fidel Castro's centennial celebrations.
Why do some Cubans suspect political motives behind the improved electricity service?
Historically, perceived improvements in Cuba's electricity service have coincided with political anniversaries or official visits, leading many to suspect that such changes are orchestrated to project a sense of stability during politically significant events.
What are the ongoing challenges in Cuba's energy sector?
Cuba's energy sector faces several structural challenges, including broken thermal units, maintenance issues, limitations due to thermal constraints, and inoperative distributed generation plants due to fuel shortages. These persistent issues contribute to the country's energy crisis.