The Cuban Institute of Meteorology has announced that the 2025 hurricane season in the North Atlantic is expected to be active, projecting the development of 11 tropical storms throughout the rest of the period. Out of these, seven may intensify into hurricanes. The forecast, which was revised on August 4, highlights a significant risk of impacts in the Caribbean and Cuba.
According to the meteorological report, seven storms are predicted to form in the Atlantic, one in the Gulf of Mexico, and three in the Caribbean Sea. The likelihood of at least one hurricane forming in the Caribbean stands at 85%, while the chance of an Atlantic-origin storm entering this region is at 70%.
Potential Impact on Cuba
For Cuba specifically, there is a 50% chance of being hit by a hurricane and an even higher probability of being affected by a tropical storm. "The threat of at least one hurricane impacting Cuba is significant at 50%, surpassing the climatological danger level for the country, which is 35%. The risk of a tropical storm affecting Cuba is even greater, with a 70% probability," stated the center.
Between June and July, tropical storms Andrea, Barry, and Chantal formed, followed by Dexter on August 3. These storms were short-lived and did not impact the national territory.
Environmental Conditions Favor Cyclone Formation
Experts emphasize that current oceanic and atmospheric conditions, such as warmer-than-average sea surface temperatures in the tropical Atlantic and the Caribbean, coupled with neutral conditions in the equatorial Pacific, support the formation and intensification of cyclones in the region.
The National Hurricane Center (NOAA) report, posted on the agency's official site, now predicts between 13 to 18 named storms, with 5 to 9 potentially developing into hurricanes. This includes up to 5 major hurricanes (category 3 or higher).
"The updated forecast should serve as a call to action. It is crucial to prepare now, before any warnings are issued," emphasized Laura Grimm, NOAA's acting administrator.
The agency estimates a 50% chance of an above-average season, a 35% chance of a near-normal season, and only a 15% chance of a below-normal season.
Common Questions About Cuba's 2025 Hurricane Season
What is the probability of Cuba being hit by a hurricane in 2025?
Cuba faces a 50% chance of being impacted by a hurricane during the 2025 season.
How many tropical storms are expected in the North Atlantic during the 2025 hurricane season?
The forecast anticipates the formation of 11 tropical storms in the North Atlantic for the remainder of the 2025 season.
What conditions are contributing to the active cyclone season?
Warmer-than-average sea surface temperatures in the tropical Atlantic and the Caribbean, along with neutral equatorial Pacific conditions, are contributing to the active cyclone season.