For the first time in at least half a century, the United States is projected to experience negative net migration by 2025, according to CNN forecasts echoed by the White House this Monday. This development would signify a historic turning point in the country's immigration policy, now under Donald Trump’s second administration, which has been dedicated to fulfilling its promise to curb the so-called “migrant invasion” and deport undocumented immigrants with criminal records.
"We face a very real possibility of negative net migration for the first time in at least 50 years," stated analyst Harry Enten. "That means more people would be leaving the country than entering, dropping from the 2.8 million recorded in 2024," he explained during a segment aired on CNN. The White House highlighted the report on the social platform X, celebrating what they consider one of the major accomplishments of Trump’s new term’s first six months.
"PROMISES MADE, PROMISES KEPT," celebrated the official message, while reiterating the need for Congress to pass laws that solidify this stricter immigration stance.
Significant Drop in Migrants, Including Cubans
The latest statistics from the Customs and Border Protection (CBP) also show a dramatic reduction in illegal border crossings, including those by Cubans. In June 2025, only 140 Cuban nationals were detained trying to enter the U.S. illegally, a decrease from the 150 detained in May, and far fewer than the 17,563 intercepted in June 2024. This marks the third month with the lowest Cuban entries in the current fiscal year.
Since October 1, 2024 — the start of fiscal year 2025 — up to the present, 32,563 Cubans have been intercepted by U.S. authorities at land borders, seaports, and airports.
A Paradigm Shift in Immigration
The current trend stands in stark contrast to the records set during the Biden administration, when migration levels reached unprecedented heights. Since returning to power in January, Trump has reinstated strict measures, including deploying military forces at the southern border, eliminating several types of parole, and reactivating expedited deportation agreements with multiple countries.
If negative net migration is confirmed by year-end, the U.S. would undergo an unprecedented shift in its recent history, amid growing debates over migrant rights, border security, and the sustainability of the current immigration system.
Key Questions on U.S. Immigration Trends
What is negative net migration?
Negative net migration occurs when more people are leaving a country than entering it, resulting in a decrease in the population due to migration.
Why is the U.S. predicting negative net migration?
The U.S. is predicting negative net migration due to stricter immigration policies under the Trump administration, which aim to reduce illegal immigration and increase deportations.
How does this trend compare to previous administrations?
This trend is a significant departure from the Biden administration, during which migration levels surged to unprecedented levels.