For the second day in a row, the informal market in Cuba is witnessing an increase in the price of the dollar, according to independent outlet elTOQUE, which tracks currency fluctuations on the island. As of 7:00 a.m. local time this Friday, the U.S. dollar is trading at 393 CUP on the street, marking a one-peso increase from the previous day's rate, which had already risen by two units. Interestingly, the median value places the dollar's selling price at 395, suggesting a continued upward trend in the near future.
Meanwhile, other currencies show no change from the previous day: the euro remains valued at 440 pesos, and the Freely Convertible Currency (MLC) is stable at 220 CUP.
Currency Anomalies: Buying for More than Selling?
A curious observation from today's report is the unusual trend in the median buying and selling values of the dollar and euro over the past 24 hours. According to elTOQUE's monitoring, the buying prices for these currencies have risen above their selling prices. The buying median for the euro has climbed to 442.50 CUP and for the dollar to 397, while their respective selling medians remain at 440 CUP and 395 CUP up to the time of this report.
Understanding the Median Value of Currency Transactions
The median value reported by elTOQUE represents the middle price among various offers in Cuba's informal currency market. Unlike averages, medians are less affected by extreme values and better reflect common transaction behaviors. When the buying median exceeds the selling median, as is currently the case, it indicates a market imbalance: there is more urgency to acquire foreign currency than to sell it, possibly signaling scarcity, speculation, or expectations of a rapid devaluation of the Cuban peso.
While elTOQUE has not yet commented, this phenomenon could suggest a heightened demand for foreign currency. A presumed shortage of dollars and euros among individuals might be driving up prices for those urgently seeking to purchase. Alternatively, speculative activities could be at play, with exchange dealers anticipating future price hikes and attempting to accumulate currency now, thus raising the buying price to entice sellers.
Another possibility is a transactional standstill: posted selling prices may not reflect actual trades, as those holding currency might choose to keep it, waiting for a better opportunity. Ultimately, these behaviors mirror the economic anxiety in Cuba, where the peso continues to lose value, and dollars and euros increasingly become safe havens for preserving purchasing power.
Currency Exchange Rates as of August 1, 2025 - 7:35 a.m. in Cuba:
Dollar (USD) to Cuban Peso (CUP) rate: 393 CUP.
Euro (EUR) to Cuban Peso (CUP) rate: 440 CUP.
Freely Convertible Currency (MLC) to Cuban Peso (CUP) rate: 220 CUP.
U.S. Dollar (USD) to Cuban Peso (CUP) Conversion:
1 USD = 393 CUP
5 USD = 1,965 CUP
10 USD = 3,930 CUP
20 USD = 7,860 CUP
50 USD = 19,650 CUP
100 USD = 39,300 CUP
Euro (EUR) to Cuban Peso (CUP) Conversion:
1 EUR = 440 CUP
5 EUR = 2,200 CUP
10 EUR = 4,400 CUP
20 EUR = 8,800 CUP
50 EUR = 22,000 CUP
100 EUR = 44,000 CUP
200 EUR = 88,000 CUP
500 EUR = 220,000 CUP
Earlier this month, Cuban Prime Minister Manuel Marrero Cruz announced before the National Assembly of People's Power (ANNP) that a new "management, control, and allocation of foreign currency" mechanism would be implemented in the second half of 2025. This initiative is part of the "Government Program to correct distortions and revive the economy."
According to Marrero, the new model will involve transforming the official exchange market, consolidating financing schemes, and allegedly redistributing the foreign currency generated by state enterprises more efficiently. Meanwhile, the informal market continues to dictate the pace: the Cuban peso loses value, while remittances from emigrants remain a lifeline for millions of households across the country.
FAQs on Cuba's Informal Currency Market
Why are the buying prices for the dollar and euro higher than their selling prices in Cuba?
This unusual situation suggests an imbalance in the market, indicating a greater urgency to purchase foreign currency than to sell it, possibly due to scarcity, speculation, or expectations of rapid currency devaluation.
What does the median value of currency transactions tell us?
The median value reflects the midpoint of reported offers, providing a more accurate picture of common transaction behaviors by minimizing the impact of extreme values.