The United States' National Hurricane Center (NHC) has issued a warning regarding a significant likelihood of a tropical depression forming in the Gulf of Mexico this Saturday afternoon. In a recent update on their website, the organization reported that showers and thunderstorms are beginning to show signs of organization. If this trend continues, a tropical depression could potentially develop by this afternoon in the Bay of Campeche.
Forecasts indicate that this system will progress west-northwest over the weekend, heading towards eastern Mexico, and is expected to make landfall by Monday. The NHC has suggested that tropical storm warnings or watches may be issued for the Mexican Gulf coast this Saturday afternoon. The probability of formation over the next 48 hours and up to seven days is high, at 70%.
Cuban meteorologist Raydel Ruisánchez noted that an active tropical wave has been generating areas of showers, rain, and disorganized thunderstorms in the northwest Caribbean Sea and Yucatán. However, only heavy and intense rainfall is expected in Belize, Guatemala, and southeastern Mexico, posing no threat to Cuban territory.
Currently, the island is experiencing medium to high cloud cover and hazy skies due to concentrations of Saharan dust. For this Saturday, isolated showers, rain, and thunderstorms are expected in the western region. According to Ruisánchez, although the presence of Saharan dust in the lower troposphere is reducing precipitation processes, there remains some atmospheric moisture. This, combined with intense heating and local factors, is conducive to showers, rain, and thunderstorms.
The 2025 hurricane season is projected to be more active than usual. The NOAA has forecasted up to 19 named storms and 10 hurricanes. Colorado State University also anticipates an active season with 17 named storms and 9 hurricanes. The warming of the Atlantic Ocean is a crucial factor in this forecast.
Understanding Cyclonic Developments and Forecasts
What is the likelihood of a tropical depression forming in the Gulf of Mexico?
The likelihood of a tropical depression forming in the Gulf of Mexico is high, with a 70% probability over the next 48 hours and up to seven days.
How will the potential tropical system impact Mexico?
The system is forecasted to move west-northwest towards eastern Mexico, potentially leading to tropical storm warnings or watches for the Mexican Gulf coast. It is expected to make landfall by Monday.
Will Cuba be affected by the tropical disturbance?
Cuba is not expected to be directly affected by the tropical disturbance. However, the island is currently experiencing cloudy and hazy conditions due to Saharan dust concentrations.