As Cuba faces a deepening economic crisis that continues to suffocate its citizens, the government has scheduled the 10th Plenary Session of the Communist Party's Central Committee for July 4th and 5th. The agenda promises to tackle "crucial issues" affecting both the economy and society, directly impacting the population. According to the official announcement, the meeting will focus on the implementation of the Government Program aimed at correcting distortions and revitalizing the national economy. Additionally, it will address plans to stabilize the failing electrical system, which has been plagued by widespread blackouts for years. The strategy for political appointments approved at the 8th Congress will also be reviewed, alongside discussions of a commemorative program for the centennial of dictator Fidel Castro's birth.
The leader Miguel Díaz-Canel, who serves as the first secretary of the Party, confirmed the gathering and indicated that it would also serve as an opportunity to call for the 9th Party Congress. However, despite the technocratic jargon surrounding the agenda, skepticism grows regarding the government's actual ability to reverse the economic decline.
Escalating Economic Distortions
Pedro Monreal, a highly respected and critical economist, expressed his concerns regarding the Plenary's announcement. In a series of posts on social media platform X, he pointed out that the root causes of the crisis are structural and political, and criticized the lack of effective policies to address them. "What 'magical sword' will the official propaganda wave this time?" he questioned, referring to the typically triumphant tone of such party events.
Monreal highlighted that, according to the Economic Commission for Latin America and the Caribbean (ECLAC), Cuba's Gross Domestic Product is projected to decline by 1% in 2024 and 0.1% in 2025, marking a third consecutive year of prolonged recession. Despite the government having approved an economic plan for 2025 just six months ago, current data suggests that the plan is already obsolete. He also warned about additional factors exacerbating economic distortions: the official double-digit inflation that fails to represent the true increase in living costs, the continuous loss of purchasing power for state salaries and pensions, and the rapid advance of dollarization in everyday life, with stores, services, and products increasingly accessible only through foreign currency.
Unfulfilled Promises from the 9th Plenary
The upcoming July session follows just seven months after the 9th Plenary, where Díaz-Canel once again pledged that the nation would overcome the crisis, but refrained from setting concrete deadlines. During that meeting, the government acknowledged the failure of the "Food Sovereignty" program and the lack of results from the economic plan launched a year earlier. Prime Minister Manuel Marrero admitted that efforts to contain distortions and boost the economy had not yielded the expected outcomes. While he emphasized that the U.S. embargo exacerbates the situation, he also acknowledged that pricing policies, national production, and fiscal deficits remain significant challenges.
Meanwhile, the Political Bureau presented a study from the Center for Sociopolitical and Opinion Studies (CESPO), aligned with the Communist Party, claiming that most Cubans support the system and its leadership. These conclusions contrasted with independent surveys showing that the majority of the population disapproves of Díaz-Canel's administration. This attempt to reinforce legitimacy through sociopolitical studies is perceived by many as part of a propaganda effort designed to project an image of popular support that does not align with everyday realities.
Key Questions About the Cuban Economic Crisis
What is the main focus of the upcoming Plenary Session?
The 10th Plenary Session will concentrate on implementing the Government Program to address economic distortions and revitalize the national economy, as well as plans to stabilize the electrical system.
Why is there skepticism about the government's ability to address the crisis?
There is skepticism due to the structural and political nature of the crisis, the lack of effective policies, and past unfulfilled promises from previous plenary sessions.
What economic challenges does Cuba currently face?
Cuba is dealing with a prolonged recession, double-digit inflation, loss of purchasing power, and increasing dollarization of everyday transactions.