For the third consecutive day, the value of foreign currencies in Cuba's informal market remains unchanged. However, an analysis published by elTOQUE on Tuesday suggests that the exchange market could become more volatile and unpredictable for the remainder of June compared to previous months. Currently, the U.S. dollar stands at 375 CUP, the euro at 400 CUP, and the Freely Convertible Currency (MLC) at 260 CUP.
In terms of the median buying and selling values for these key currencies, there are indications that the euro could reach up to 405 CUP, and the dollar could rise to 376 CUP. These changes might materialize soon.
Current Exchange Rates as of June 11, 2025, 9:30 a.m. in Cuba
According to elTOQUE, the exchange rate for the U.S. dollar is 375 CUP, the euro is 400 CUP, and the MLC is 260 CUP.
The Market's Shift: From May's Stability to June's Uncertainty
In their assessment, the independent media outlet notes that May saw a relatively stable informal currency market in Cuba. The euro emerged as the most profitable currency, appreciating by 14.8% in CUP over three months, compared to the 8.2% rise of the U.S. dollar. Conversely, the MLC experienced a 7% decrease in value during the same period.
The dollar exhibited minor fluctuations, increasing just 3 CUP (0.82%) over the month. This stability also helped the MLC, which closed May at 270 CUP per unit, the same value as April, halting the persistent decline that began in March. A noteworthy signal was the USDT cryptocurrency trading above 400 CUP in the last week of May, often a precursor to future dollar values.
June Projections: Anticipated Upward Pressure on Currencies
The Cuban Observatory of Currencies and Finances (OMFi) foresees a shift in dynamics for June. They warn that while May was characterized by an oversupply, June might be driven by excessive demand, pushing currency values higher.
According to OMFi's forecasting models, the expected exchange rates in Cuba by June 30, 2025, are as follows: the U.S. dollar could have a central value of 385 CUP, with a maximum of 408 and a minimum of 365. For the euro, a central value of 406 CUP is anticipated, with a maximum of 421 and a minimum of 385. The MLC is projected to have a central value of 274 CUP, reaching a maximum of 284 and a minimum of 260. All indicators point to an upward trend from current values.
In a central scenario, the informal dollar could rise by about 15 CUP (4%). In a more extreme case, the increase could reach up to 38 CUP (10%). For the euro, the increase would range between 3% and 7%. These figures could push both the dollar and the euro above the 400 CUP threshold, a significant psychological barrier.
A Parallel Economy: Phone Credit as a New Currency
Meanwhile, the tariff hikes by ETECSA have spurred a rise in the trading of phone credit on social media. This activity, lacking official regulation and driven by supply and demand, involves multiple currencies: Cuban pesos (CUP), dollars (USD), euros (EUR), and MLC.
The catalyst for this surge is the monthly recharge limit of 360 CUP per user. As balance transfers remain unrestricted, many are willing to pay more, establishing phone credit as a scarce and valuable commodity in the informal economy.
"The mechanism of the Cuban communications monopoly has created a parallel economy where phone credit circulates as an alternative currency," says OMFi.
Economic Impact: Inflation and Lack of Reforms
OMFi indicates that the tariff increase will affect the Consumer Price Index (CPI) and raise operational costs, especially for more digitalized businesses. "This ETECSA price hike will impact the June CPI and create a shock in operational costs for businesses, particularly those more digitalized," they assert.
While the long-term effects could be anti-inflationary by reducing peso circulation and generating fiscal revenue, the immediate impact sharply reduces families' purchasing power.
The article emphasizes that this strategy lacks accompanying structural economic reforms. Instead, it points to a growing rent-seeking approach. "Rather than promoting productivity, the government aims to increase rent extraction through selective dollarization and raising public service prices," it concludes.
Currency Conversion Rates
Here are the equivalent values for each available denomination of U.S. dollars and euros in Cuban pesos (CUP) as of June 11:
U.S. Dollar (USD) to Cuban Peso (CUP):
- 1 USD = 375 CUP
- 5 USD = 1,875 CUP
- 10 USD = 3,750 CUP
- 20 USD = 7,500 CUP
- 50 USD = 18,750 CUP
- 100 USD = 37,500 CUP
Euros (EUR):
- 1 EUR = 400 CUP
- 5 EUR = 2,000 CUP
- 10 EUR = 4,000 CUP
- 20 EUR = 8,000 CUP
- 50 EUR = 20,000 CUP
- 100 EUR = 40,000 CUP
- 200 EUR = 80,000 CUP
Understanding the Cuban Exchange Market
What are the current exchange rates in Cuba's informal market?
As of June 11, 2025, the exchange rate for the U.S. dollar is 375 CUP, for the euro it is 400 CUP, and for the MLC it is 260 CUP.
How might the exchange rates change by the end of June 2025?
The OMFi forecasts suggest that by June 30, 2025, the U.S. dollar could reach a central value of 385 CUP, the euro 406 CUP, and the MLC 274 CUP, with a tendency for these values to rise.
Why is phone credit considered a valuable commodity in Cuba's informal economy?
Due to ETECSA's monthly recharge limit and unrestricted balance transfers, phone credit has become a scarce and valuable commodity, acting as an alternative currency.
What economic impact do ETECSA's tariff increases have?
The tariff hikes will likely increase the Consumer Price Index and operational costs, impacting especially digital businesses, and reducing families' purchasing power.