The average revenue per mobile line in Cuba has plummeted from $133 in 2018 to just $31 in 2024, as disclosed by Tania Velázquez, the CEO of the government-owned Cuban Telecommunications Company (ETECSA). This revelation was made during the official podcast "Desde la Presidencia," hosted by the Cuban leader Miguel Díaz-Canel. Beyond the headline, this statement has sparked a necessary debate: are these revenue declines due to fraud and "international recharge hijacking"? Or is it yet another symptom of a rigid state structure, out of touch with the island's technological and economic realities?
Velázquez illustrated her points with a graph showing the drop in revenue alongside an unstoppable growth in mobile data traffic, which soared from 22 petabytes in 2018 to 855 in 2024. The executive mentioned that these figures represented monthly revenue per line, which raises significant doubts. With nearly eight million active mobile lines across the nation, as recently acknowledged by Communications Minister Mayra Arevich, this would imply annual revenues exceeding $2.9 billion—a figure disproportionate for an economy suffocated by sanctions, inflation, and chronic currency shortages.
The most logical explanation is that Velázquez confused monthly figures with annual revenues. If that's the case, ETECSA's total revenues would be around $600 million in 2018 and approximately $240 million in 2024, figures much more consistent with previous estimates and the economic behavior of the telecommunications sector in Cuba.
Examining the Blame
According to ETECSA's president, the "hijacking" of international recharges and fraud are to blame for the decline. She claimed that 80% of foreign currency income depended on recharges sent from abroad, which have been displaced by national recharges in Cuban Pesos (CUP), a phenomenon she said was "induced" and not the will of the users.
However, this perspective overlooks key factors: the opacity in business management, high service prices, quality deficits, and the design of promotions and recharge policies that have driven users to seek more affordable alternatives. Can all income that ETECSA does not control be considered fraud? Or is it simply a popular response to a lack of options?
Contradictory Growth
Ironically, the revenue decline contrasts with the sustained growth of users and services. According to information published by ETECSA on its website, the company saw a significant leap in infrastructure and digital adoption between 2016 and 2020:
- 2016: Achieved 4 million mobile lines.
- 2017: Launched Nauta Hogar and the Yellow Pages portal.
- 2018: Began mobile data internet access, reaching 5 million lines.
- 2019: Introduced 4G to prepaid customers; reached 6 million lines and achieved 100% national digitalization.
- 2020: Transfermóvil exceeded one million users.
Yet in 2024, as reported by the official newspaper Escambray, almost 8 million Cubans access mobile telephony, with 94% connected to the internet. The average mobile data consumption per person has reached 9.9 GB monthly. The 4G network's capacities expanded, international connectivity increased, and the number of homes with internet access grew to 283,000. The government operates 263 digital portals and is working on a new digital management platform named Soberanía, promising transparency and popular participation.
All of this contradicts the notion of a "suffocated" infrastructure and instead points to a disconnect between pricing policy, business management models, and the country's true technological needs. As a monopoly, ETECSA's management flaws, tariff discrepancies, and accounting opacity directly affect revenues without institutional checks to force corrective measures.
The official narrative points outward: to fraud, the embargo, to induced mechanisms. But the data published by the company and the government tells a different story. It’s a story where Cubans connect more, seek alternative solutions, and push from the bottom for digital transformation despite the hurdles, not because of them. The drop in ETECSA's revenues doesn't reflect a lack of demand but rather a crisis of confidence in its model. Because in a country where nearly everyone is connected, what's out of sync, besides the graph, is the narrative.
Understanding ETECSA's Revenue Challenges
What has caused the decline in ETECSA's revenue per line?
The decline is attributed to the "hijacking" of international recharges and fraud, as well as issues within ETECSA's pricing policies and management, which have driven users to find more affordable alternatives.
How has mobile data traffic changed in recent years?
Mobile data traffic in Cuba has surged dramatically, increasing from 22 petabytes in 2018 to 855 petabytes in 2024, indicating a substantial rise in data consumption.
Why is there a contradiction between ETECSA's revenue decline and user growth?
The contradiction arises from ETECSA's management and pricing issues. While user numbers and connectivity continue to grow, the company's tariff structure and business model have not adapted, leading to a decline in confidence and revenue.