As Thursday dawned, two out of the three main currencies in Cuba's informal market experienced shifts: the US dollar made gains, while the value of the Freely Convertible Currency (MLC) dipped. The American dollar climbed to 373 Cuban pesos (CUP) per dollar, an increase of three pesos compared to the previous day when it had been holding steady at 370 since May 3.
Conversely, as of June 5, the MLC's rate dropped from 265 to 260 CUP. This controversial virtual currency, used by the Cuban regime in increasingly scarce stores, has been oscillating between 260 and 265 CUP for weeks. While many anticipate its eventual disappearance, the MLC remains in play for now.
Meanwhile, the euro's value holds firm at 395 CUP, a rate it reached last week.
The Informal Market and ETECSA's Price Hike
So far, Cuba's informal currency exchange market has barely responded to the rising social tensions caused by ETECSA's hefty price hikes. Although the dollar briefly surged to 372 CUP after the controversial announcement, it quickly reverted to 370 CUP. However, this trend towards stability might shift.
This Thursday, the median sale price for the euro is at 400 CUP, nearing its all-time high from last year. As for the dollar, it is being traded at a median rate of 375 CUP.
Pavel Vidal, the chief economist at Cuba's Currency and Finance Observatory (OMFi), recently cautioned that the exchange rate in Cuba's informal market is "highly volatile and sensitive to speculative and political factors."
Despite this, ETECSA's controversial decision to impose restrictions on mobile recharges in Cuban pesos and to introduce new dollarized services has not yet been reflected in the documented currency exchange rates reported by elTOQUE.
Today's Exchange Rates in Cuba
As of 7:51 a.m. on June 5, 2025, in Cuba, the exchange rates are as follows according to elTOQUE:
- USD to CUP: 373 CUP
- EUR to CUP: 395 CUP
- MLC to CUP: 260 CUP
Conversion examples for USD to CUP based on June 5 exchange rates:
- 1 USD = 373 CUP
- 5 USD = 1,865 CUP
- 10 USD = 3,730 CUP
- 20 USD = 7,460 CUP
- 50 USD = 18,650 CUP
- 100 USD = 37,300 CUP
Conversion examples for EUR to CUP:
- 1 EUR = 395 CUP
- 5 EUR = 1,975 CUP
- 10 EUR = 3,950 CUP
- 20 EUR = 7,900 CUP
- 50 EUR = 19,750 CUP
- 100 EUR = 39,500 CUP
- 200 EUR = 79,000 CUP
- 500 EUR = 197,500 CUP
Last week, it emerged that the Currency and Finance Observatory of Cuba (OMFi) has developed a methodology that, as claimed, allows for highly accurate predictions of movements within Cuba's informal currency market, especially for the dollar. An independent media outlet reported that through the use of artificial intelligence and econometric models, OMFi has achieved a 94% accuracy rate in its forecasts for the dollar's value.
Pavel Vidal, the lead researcher for the project, explained that the model's success lies in the use of real-time data collected via artificial intelligence from social networks and digital platforms where dollars, euros, and MLC are traded. This informational advantage has significantly reduced the uncertainty regarding exchange rate trends.
Understanding Cuba's Currency Shifts
Why is the US dollar gaining value in Cuba?
The US dollar is gaining value in Cuba's informal market due to increased demand and possibly speculative activities influenced by economic and political factors.
What is causing the MLC's decrease in value?
The MLC's value decrease might be attributed to its controversial nature and the limited number of stores accepting it, alongside market fluctuations.
How does ETECSA's announcement affect currency exchange rates?
While ETECSA's new restrictions and services have not yet impacted currency exchange rates, there is potential for future influence as the situation evolves.