Despite the controversial announcement by ETECSA to impose restrictions on mobile recharges in Cuban pesos and the introduction of new dollarized services, the informal currency exchange market in Cuba has not been significantly affected. As of this Tuesday morning, the U.S. dollar remains steady at 370 CUP, a rate it has predominantly maintained over recent weeks, with a brief spike to 372 pesos on Saturday, May 31, following the so-called tariff increase. However, the dollar quickly retreated to 370 CUP, holding firm as median values show no movement.
On June 3, the euro and the Freely Convertible Currency (MLC) also opened without changes, valued at 395 and 265, respectively, according to the daily report from elTOQUE.
Today's Exchange Rates in Cuba
As of June 3, 2025, at 9:21 a.m., the exchange rates according to elTOQUE are as follows:
USD to CUP: 370 CUP
EUR to CUP: 395 CUP
MLC to CUP: 265 CUP
Current Currency Conversion
Here's how U.S. dollars and euros convert to Cuban pesos (CUP) as of June 3:
U.S. Dollar (USD) to Cuban Peso (CUP):
USD 1 = 370 CUP
USD 5 = 1,850 CUP
USD 10 = 3,700 CUP
USD 20 = 7,400 CUP
USD 50 = 18,500 CUP
USD 100 = 37,000 CUP
Euros (EUR):
EUR 1 = 395 CUP
EUR 5 = 1,975 CUP
EUR 10 = 3,950 CUP
EUR 20 = 7,900 CUP
EUR 50 = 19,750 CUP
EUR 100 = 39,500 CUP
EUR 200 = 79,000 CUP
EUR 500 = 197,500 CUP
Predicting Currency Movements: A New Methodology
Last week, it was revealed that the Observatorio de Monedas y Finanzas de Cuba (OMFi), an entity associated with elTOQUE, has developed a methodology that reportedly allows for highly accurate predictions of informal currency market movements on the island, especially concerning the dollar. An article by the independent media outlet specified that through the use of artificial intelligence and econometric models, the OMFi has achieved a 94% accuracy rate in its forecasts of the dollar's value.
Economist Pavel Vidal, the project's lead researcher, explained that the forecasts are beneficial for a wide range of economic actors, from citizens needing foreign currency for remittances or travel to entrepreneurs importing products and aiming to safeguard their margins against market volatility. The model's key is the use of real-time data, captured via artificial intelligence from social networks and digital platforms where dollars, euros, and MLC are traded.
This informational edge has significantly reduced uncertainty about the exchange rate's trajectory, according to the source.
Challenges in Exchange Rate Predictions
The OMFi analysis highlights that the exchange rate in Cuba's informal market is highly volatile and sensitive to speculative and political factors. Critical moments included August and September 2023, when banking measures were announced, and December 2024, following statements by Prime Minister Manuel Marrero about a potential floating exchange rate. There were also significant errors between May and June 2024 during the so-called "herd effect" and after government announcements that abruptly altered expectations.
Nevertheless, in 2025, accuracy has improved, with an average error margin of just 1.8% in the first four months.
Understanding Cuba's Informal Currency Market
What factors influence the informal currency exchange rate in Cuba?
The exchange rate is influenced by speculative and political factors, including government announcements and economic policies.
How accurate is the OMFi's currency prediction methodology?
OMFi's methodology has achieved a 94% accuracy rate in predicting movements of the dollar in the informal market.
Why is real-time data important for currency predictions?
Real-time data allows for more precise and timely predictions by capturing current market trends and sentiments.