Recently, the value of the U.S. dollar has retreated slightly, now holding steady at 370 Cuban Pesos (CUP), a rate that has been largely stable for the past few weeks. This adjustment follows a brief increase to 372 CUP over the weekend, seemingly influenced by ETECSA's controversial announcement of imposing restrictions on mobile top-ups in Cuban pesos and introducing new dollarized services.
Despite some predictions that ETECSA's announcement might cause the U.S. dollar to surge, no significant spike has occurred. Meanwhile, the Freely Convertible Currency (MLC) has risen again to 265 CUP, according to the latest figures from elTOQUE. The euro, however, remains unchanged at 395 CUP.
Exchange Rates as of May 30, 2025, 9:21 a.m. in Cuba:
USD to CUP rate per elTOQUE: 370 CUP.
EUR to CUP rate per elTOQUE: 395 CUP.
MLC to CUP rate per elTOQUE: 265 CUP.
Conversion Rates for U.S. Dollar and Euro to Cuban Pesos:
U.S. Dollar (USD) to CUP:
1 USD = 370 CUP
5 USD = 1,850 CUP
10 USD = 3,700 CUP
20 USD = 7,400 CUP
50 USD = 18,500 CUP
100 USD = 37,000 CUP
Euro (EUR) to CUP:
1 EUR = 395 CUP
5 EUR = 1,975 CUP
10 EUR = 3,950 CUP
20 EUR = 7,900 CUP
50 EUR = 19,750 CUP
100 EUR = 39,500 CUP
200 EUR = 79,000 CUP
500 EUR = 197,500 CUP
Predicting Currency Fluctuations in Cuba
Last week, it was revealed that the Cuban Observatory of Currencies and Finances (OMFi), affiliated with elTOQUE, has developed a methodology that it claims can accurately predict movements in the island's informal currency market, particularly concerning the dollar. An article from this independent outlet highlighted that through the use of artificial intelligence and econometric models, OMFi boasts a 94% accuracy rate in forecasting the dollar's value.
Economist Pavel Vidal, the lead researcher on the project, explained that these forecasts are beneficial for a broad spectrum of economic actors—from individuals needing currency for remittances or travel, to entrepreneurs importing goods and seeking to safeguard their profit margins amid market volatility. The model's core strength lies in utilizing real-time data gathered via AI from social media and digital platforms where dollars, euros, and MLC are traded.
This informational advantage, as outlined by the source, has significantly decreased uncertainty regarding exchange rate trends.
Challenges in Forecasting Exchange Rates
OMFi's analysis points out that the exchange rate in Cuba's informal market is highly volatile and sensitive to speculative and political factors. Some of the most turbulent periods occurred in August and September 2023, following announcements of banking reforms, and in December 2024, after statements from Prime Minister Manuel Marrero about a potential floating exchange rate policy.
There were also notable forecasting errors between May and June 2024 due to the so-called "herd effect," triggered by government announcements that sharply altered market expectations. Despite these challenges, forecasting accuracy has improved in 2025, with an average error margin of just 1.8% in the year's first four months.
OMFi notes that although the exchange rate has stayed within the projected minimum and maximum range 43.5% of the time, deviations have averaged only 5.3% when they did occur.
Understanding Cuba's Informal Currency Market
What factors influence the exchange rate in Cuba's informal market?
The exchange rate is influenced by speculative activities, political announcements, and economic policies, which can cause significant fluctuations.
How accurate are OMFi's currency forecasts?
OMFi's currency forecasts boast a 94% accuracy rate, using artificial intelligence and econometric models to predict market movements.