This Friday, Cuba's informal currency exchange market witnessed an unexpected twist as the MLC, a virtual currency used by the regime in its dwindling stores, saw a sudden increase of five pesos compared to the previous day. The Moneda Libremente Convertible, believed by many economists and citizens to be on the brink of extinction, was valued at 265 CUP as of May 30.
Meanwhile, the average selling rates for both the US dollar and the euro remain unchanged, according to the daily report from elTOQUE. The US dollar continues to trade at 370 CUP, while the euro is at 395 CUP. However, the Median Value, which tracks the last 24 hours' transactions, indicates that both currencies have seen price hikes. The median shows the selling price for the dollar at 375 CUP and the euro at 400 CUP, the latter approaching the record high reached last May.
Current Exchange Rates in Cuba
As of 9:21 a.m. on May 30, 2025, in Cuba, the exchange rates according to elTOQUE are as follows:
- USD to CUP: 370
- EUR to CUP: 395
- MLC to CUP: 265
Here are the equivalences for each available bill in US dollars and euros:
- USD 1 = 370 CUP
- USD 5 = 1,850 CUP
- USD 10 = 3,700 CUP
- USD 20 = 7,400 CUP
- USD 50 = 18,500 CUP
- USD 100 = 37,000 CUP
- EUR 1 = 395 CUP
- 5 EUR = 1,975 CUP
- 10 EUR = 3,950 CUP
- 20 EUR = 7,900 CUP
- 50 EUR = 19,750 CUP
- 100 EUR = 39,500 CUP
- 200 EUR = 79,000 CUP
- 500 EUR = 197,500 CUP
Innovative Forecasting by OMFi
This week, it was revealed that the Cuban Currency and Finance Observatory (OMFi), associated with elTOQUE, has devised a methodology that reportedly predicts with remarkable accuracy the trends in Cuba's informal currency market, particularly for the dollar.
According to a report by the independent media outlet, the OMFi has achieved a 94% accuracy rate in its forecasts about the dollar's value, utilizing artificial intelligence and econometric models. Economist Pavel Vidal, the lead researcher on the project, explained that "these forecasts are invaluable to a wide range of economic actors," from citizens needing foreign currency for remittances or travel to entrepreneurs importing goods and seeking to safeguard their margins against market instability.
The model's success hinges on real-time data collected via artificial intelligence from social media and digital platforms where dollars, euros, and MLC are traded. This informational advantage has significantly reduced uncertainty about the exchange rate's trajectory.
Challenges in Predicting the Exchange Rate
The OMFi's analysis highlights that the exchange rate in Cuba's informal market is highly volatile and sensitive to speculative and political factors. Some of the most tumultuous periods occurred in August and September 2023, following announcements of banking measures, and in December 2024, after Prime Minister Manuel Marrero hinted at a possible floating exchange rate.
Significant missteps were noted between May and June 2024 during the so-called "herd effect" and subsequent to government announcements that drastically shifted expectations. Nevertheless, in 2025, forecasting accuracy has improved, with an average error margin of just 1.8% in the first four months. The OMFi reports that although the exchange rate has stayed within the predicted minimum and maximum range 43.5% of the time, deviations have averaged a mere 5.3%.
Understanding Cuba's Currency Market Dynamics
What is the MLC in Cuba?
The MLC, or Moneda Libremente Convertible, is a virtual currency used in Cuba's state-run stores. It is often perceived as a temporary solution amidst economic instability.
Why is the informal exchange rate significant in Cuba?
The informal exchange rate is significant because it often reflects the real demand and supply for foreign currency, unlike the official rates, which may not align with market realities.
How accurate are OMFi's currency forecasts?
OMFi's forecasts have achieved a 94% accuracy rate, using advanced artificial intelligence and econometric models to predict currency trends in Cuba's informal market.