After a brief period of stability, the informal currency market in Cuba is witnessing a surge in euro prices, while the median value of the dollar teeters on the brink of an increase. As of Thursday morning, the euro has jumped by five pesos, reaching 395 CUP, based on the daily update from the independent outlet elTOQUE, which closely monitors currency fluctuations on the island. Meanwhile, the dollar remains listed at 370 CUP, although the average selling rate over the past day suggests a potential rise, with the median at 373 CUP. As for the Freely Convertible Currency (MLC), it remains steady at 260 CUP.
Exchange rates as of May 29, 2025, at 7:38 a.m. in Cuba are as follows: the USD to CUP rate is 370 CUP, the EUR to CUP rate is 395 CUP, and the MLC to CUP rate is 260 CUP. The conversion values for different denominations of euros and US dollars to Cuban pesos (CUP) are listed below:
United States Dollar (USD) to Cuban Peso (CUP) based on May 29 exchange rates:
- USD 1 = 370 CUP
- USD 5 = 1,850 CUP
- USD 10 = 3,700 CUP
- USD 20 = 7,400 CUP
- USD 50 = 18,500 CUP
- USD 100 = 37,000 CUP
Euro (EUR) to Cuban Peso (CUP):
- EUR 1 = 395 CUP
- 5 EUR = 1,975 CUP
- 10 EUR = 3,950 CUP
- 20 EUR = 7,900 CUP
- 50 EUR = 19,750 CUP
- 100 EUR = 39,500 CUP
- 200 EUR = 79,000 CUP
- 500 EUR = 197,500 CUP
AI-Powered Market Predictions
Recently, it was revealed that the Cuban Observatory of Currencies and Finance (OMFi), affiliated with elTOQUE, has developed a methodology that claims to predict currency market movements in Cuba with high accuracy, particularly for the dollar. An article by the independent media outlet stated that through the use of artificial intelligence and econometric models, OMFi has achieved a 94% accuracy rate in its dollar value forecasts.
Pavel Vidal, the lead economist on the project, explained that these forecasts are beneficial for a wide range of economic players, from individuals needing currency for remittances or travel to entrepreneurs importing goods who need to safeguard their profit margins from market volatility. The model's core strength lies in utilizing real-time data gathered through AI from social media and digital platforms where dollars, euros, and MLC are traded. This informational edge has significantly reduced uncertainty regarding exchange rate developments.
Challenges in Forecasting
The OMFi's analysis highlights that Cuba's informal exchange rate is highly volatile, influenced by speculative and political factors. Notably tumultuous periods occurred in August and September 2023, following the announcement of banking measures, and in December 2024, after Prime Minister Manuel Marrero's comments on a potential floating exchange rate. Significant errors also arose between May and June 2024 amidst the so-called "herd effect" and government announcements that drastically shifted expectations.
Despite these challenges, the accuracy of predictions has improved in 2025, with an average error margin of only 1.8% in the first four months. The OMFi reports that while the exchange rate has stayed within the expected range in 43.5% of months, deviations have been minor, averaging just 5.3%.
Understanding Cuba's Currency Market Fluctuations
What caused the recent increase in euro prices in Cuba's informal market?
The recent rise in euro prices is attributed to market volatility and speculative factors, which are common influences in Cuba's dynamic informal currency market.
How accurate are the OMFi's currency market predictions?
The OMFi's predictions have shown a 94% accuracy rate, leveraging artificial intelligence and econometric models to forecast currency movements effectively.
Why is the Cuban informal exchange rate so volatile?
The volatility in Cuba's informal exchange rate is largely due to speculative trading and political decisions that impact market perceptions and expectations.