The informal currency market in Cuba has experienced a rare period of stability over the past four days, with the US dollar, euro, and Freely Convertible Currency (MLC) showing no fluctuations. As of 7:00 a.m. this Wednesday, the dollar remains valued at 370 CUP, while the euro holds steady at 390 CUP, consistent with the rates established last week. Similarly, the MLC is unchanged at 260 CUP, according to the latest report from the independent news outlet elTOQUE.
Current Exchange Rates in Cuba
As of May 28, 2025, at 7:49 a.m., these are the exchange rates in Cuba according to elTOQUE:
- USD to CUP: 370 CUP
- EUR to CUP: 390 CUP
- MLC to CUP: 260 CUP
Predicting Cuba's Informal Currency Market
Recently, the Cuban Observatory of Currencies and Finances (OMFi), an entity associated with elTOQUE, has unveiled a methodology they claim can predict the informal currency market's movements on the island with remarkable accuracy, particularly concerning the dollar. Through the use of artificial intelligence and econometric models, OMFi has achieved a 94% accuracy rate in forecasting the dollar's value.
Economist Pavel Vidal, the project's chief researcher, emphasized that these forecasts are beneficial for a diverse group of economic actors, ranging from individuals needing foreign currency for remittances or travel, to entrepreneurs importing goods who must safeguard their profit margins against market volatility. The model's success lies in its utilization of real-time data gathered via AI from social media and digital platforms where dollars, euros, and MLC are exchanged.
Challenges in Currency Forecasting
Despite these advancements, OMFi highlights that the exchange rate in Cuba's informal market is highly volatile and subject to speculative and political influences. One of the most challenging periods occurred in August and September 2023, following the announcement of banking measures, and again in December 2024, after Prime Minister Manuel Marrero hinted at a possible floating exchange rate policy.
Significant errors also emerged between May and June 2024, amid the so-called "herd effect" and government announcements that drastically shifted expectations. However, in 2025, accuracy has improved, with an average error margin of just 1.8% in the first four months. While the exchange rate has stayed within the predicted range in 43.5% of the months, deviations have only averaged a 5.3% difference.
Currency Conversion: Euros and US Dollars to Cuban Pesos
Here are the equivalencies for US dollars and euros to Cuban pesos (CUP) at the current exchange rates on May 28:
- 1 USD = 370 CUP
- 5 USD = 1850 CUP
- 10 USD = 3700 CUP
- 20 USD = 7400 CUP
- 50 USD = 18500 CUP
- 100 USD = 37000 CUP
- 1 EUR = 390 CUP
- 5 EUR = 1950 CUP
- 10 EUR = 3900 CUP
- 20 EUR = 7800 CUP
- 50 EUR = 19500 CUP
- 100 EUR = 39000 CUP
- 200 EUR = 78000 CUP
Understanding Cuba's Informal Currency Market Dynamics
What factors influence the volatility of the informal currency market in Cuba?
The informal currency market in Cuba is highly susceptible to speculative and political factors, including government policy announcements and economic reforms.
How does the OMFi predict currency trends in Cuba?
OMFi utilizes artificial intelligence and econometric models to analyze real-time data from social media and digital platforms, achieving a 94% accuracy rate in predicting currency trends.
How accurate are OMFi's currency forecasts?
OMFi's forecasts have improved in 2025, maintaining an average error margin of just 1.8% in the first four months of the year.