The informal currency exchange market in Cuba remains stable for the third consecutive day. As of 10:00 a.m. this Tuesday, the U.S. dollar holds steady at 370 CUP and the euro at 390 CUP, consistent with figures from the previous week. Similarly, the Freely Convertible Currency (MLC) is unchanged at 260 CUP, according to the latest report from the independent outlet elTOQUE.
Current Exchange Rates in Cuba (May 27, 2025 - 10:56 a.m.)
USD to CUP exchange rate via elTOQUE: 370 CUP.
EUR to CUP exchange rate via elTOQUE: 390 CUP.
MLC to CUP exchange rate via elTOQUE: 260 CUP.
How OMFi Predicts Cuba's Informal Currency Market
The Observatorio de Monedas y Finanzas de Cuba (OMFi) at elTOQUE has developed a sophisticated methodology to forecast movements in Cuba's informal currency market, especially concerning the U.S. dollar. A recent article from the independent media outlet detailed that through the use of artificial intelligence and econometric models, OMFi has achieved a remarkable 94% accuracy in its dollar value predictions.
Economist Pavel Vidal, the project's lead researcher, explained that these forecasts are invaluable to a broad range of economic players—from individuals needing foreign currency for remittances or travel to entrepreneurs importing goods who must safeguard their profit margins against market volatility. The model's success hinges on real-time data collection, leveraging artificial intelligence to gather information from social media and digital platforms where dollars, euros, and MLC are traded.
This informational advantage has significantly diminished uncertainty regarding exchange rate trends.
Challenges in Forecasting the Currency Market
OMFi's analysis indicates that exchange rates in Cuba's informal market are highly volatile, influenced heavily by speculative and political factors. Notably, significant forecasting errors occurred between May and June 2024 amid the so-called "herd effect" and following government announcements that drastically shifted expectations.
One of the most pivotal periods was during August and September 2023, when banking measures were announced, and in December 2024, after Prime Minister Manuel Marrero hinted at a potential floating exchange rate. During these times, elTOQUE acknowledged that predicted values diverged significantly from actual rates. Nevertheless, accuracy improved in 2025, with an average error margin of only 1.8% in the first four months. The OMFi reports that while the exchange rate stayed within the predicted minimum and maximum range 43.5% of the time, deviations averaged only 5.3%.
OMFi's New Strategy: Weekly Market Reports
OMFi has announced plans to provide weekly reports on the informal market’s evolution to enhance responsiveness to sudden changes. This new publication strategy will be subscription-based, with details on how to subscribe coming soon. "More frequent publications will enable early detection of rising or falling pressures in exchange rates," they concluded.
Currency Equivalences in Cuban Pesos (CUP)
U.S. Dollar (USD) to Cuban Peso (CUP) based on May 27 exchange rates:
- 1 USD = 370 CUP.
- 5 USD = 1,850 CUP.
- 10 USD = 3,700 CUP.
- 20 USD = 7,400 CUP.
- 50 USD = 18,500 CUP.
- 100 USD = 37,000 CUP.
Euro (EUR)
- 1 EUR = 390 CUP.
- 5 EUR = 1,950 CUP.
- 10 EUR = 3,900 CUP.
- 20 EUR = 7,800 CUP.
- 50 EUR = 19,500 CUP.
- 100 EUR = 39,000 CUP.
- 200 EUR = 78,000 CUP.
Frequently Asked Questions About Currency Exchange in Cuba
How accurate are OMFi's currency forecasts?
OMFi's forecasts boast a 94% accuracy rate in predicting the value of the U.S. dollar in Cuba's informal market, thanks to their advanced use of artificial intelligence and econometric models.
What factors contribute to the volatility of Cuba's informal exchange rates?
The volatility is largely due to speculative activities and political announcements, which can significantly alter market expectations and lead to rapid fluctuations in exchange rates.
What is the new strategy of OMFi for currency predictions?
OMFi plans to release weekly reports on market trends to improve response times to abrupt changes, with these reports being available through a subscription service.