Cuba ended 2024 with its population dipping below 10 million, marking the lowest birthrate in over six decades, as confirmed by Juan Carlos Alfonso Fraga, the deputy head of the National Office of Statistics and Information (ONEI). In a press briefing, the official acknowledged the deepening demographic crisis that the country has been grappling with for decades, as reported by Canal Caribe.
"We are projecting, I repeat, projecting, that this year's birth numbers will fall even below the already low 71,000," stated Alfonso Fraga, referencing the 71,358 births recorded in 2023, the lowest in 65 years. Data from ONEI reveals that between 2020 and 2024, Cuba has lost over 1.4 million residents, with a natural decrease of 56,740 people in the past year alone.
Alfonso Fraga explained that this birth crisis is not a new phenomenon nor solely tied to the current economic challenges. "Since 1978, Cuba has been below replacement level. That means a woman in Cuba has fewer than two children, or a couple has fewer than two children to replace them," he noted.
This ongoing drop in birth rates is coupled with a significant aging population. Currently, 25.7% of Cubans are aged 60 or older, a rate comparable to developed nations but lacking the institutional or economic support found in those countries. Alfonso Fraga warned that this trend is expected to persist. "The population is shrinking, meaning there are fewer people each passing year," he stated.
This demographic shift is further compounded by a negative external migration balance of -251,221 people in 2024, a figure that remains high even though it is slightly less than in 2022 and 2023.
Despite these alarming statistics, the official discourse emphasizes using this data for "decision-making at both local and national levels to enhance what is considered a society's greatest asset: its people," according to commentary by pro-government journalist Gisela García Rivero. However, in a nation where mass migration, low birth rates, economic turmoil, and bleak prospects for the youth intertwine, this "greatest wealth" seems to diminish with each passing year.
Understanding Cuba's Population Decline
Why is Cuba experiencing a population decline?
Cuba is facing a population decline due to a combination of low birth rates, a significant number of residents emigrating, and an aging population without adequate institutional support.
How does Cuba's aging population compare to developed countries?
While Cuba's aging population rate of 25.7% is similar to that of developed countries, it lacks the economic and institutional backing that typically supports such demographics in wealthier nations.
What has been the impact of migration on Cuba's population?
Migration has significantly impacted Cuba's population, with a negative migration balance of -251,221 in 2024, continuing to contribute to the country's declining population numbers.