This week, the season's first tropical wave is set to move through the Caribbean, south of Cuba, significantly increasing rainfall and thunderstorms across the island. According to meteorologist Raydel Ruisánchez, who shared his forecast on Facebook, this system, combined with intense daytime heating, local factors, and a cyclonic circulation in the upper atmosphere, will heighten the activity of showers, rain, and thunderstorms, particularly during the afternoon hours.
Precipitation is expected to begin increasing on Tuesday in the eastern region, gradually spreading to the rest of the country in the following days. Ruisánchez mentioned they will closely monitor the system's evolution and the potential for heavy rains and even severe storms, which are common during Cuba's rainy season.
For Sunday afternoon, Ruisánchez predicted on Facebook that rainfall would mainly affect the western part of the country, focusing on the interior and northern areas of the far west, as well as inland and southern regions. He noted that outside the west, the rain would be more isolated or even absent across the rest of the archipelago.
The forecast is based on several local-scale precipitation accumulation models, as stated by the meteorologist, who advised caution due to the possibility of thunderstorms. On this topic, Cuban meteorologist José Rubiera explained that the first tropical wave of the year has already emerged from Africa but poses no threat.
"It's interesting, although it's a weak system. The first tropical wave of this year left Africa on Sunday, the 18th. It's a weak system advancing through the Atlantic without any consequences. Conditions are not favorable for any formation in the Atlantic at this moment," Rubiera detailed on his YouTube channel.
The National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) has released its official forecast for the 2025 Atlantic hurricane season, predicting it will be "above average," with a high likelihood of significant storms. The report, presented at a press conference just days before the official start of the season (which runs from June 1 to November 30), estimates the formation of 13 to 19 named storms, of which 6 to 10 could become hurricanes, and 3 to 5 might reach major hurricane status (category 3 or higher).
NOAA attributes this forecast to several key climatic factors: warmer-than-normal Atlantic and Caribbean sea surface temperatures; a neutral phase of the El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO), which does not inhibit cyclone development as an active El Niño would, and a stronger West African monsoon, which can generate more tropical waves, the "seeds" that often develop into hurricanes.
Key Insights on Cuba's Weather and Hurricane Season
What is the impact of the first tropical wave on Cuba?
The first tropical wave of the season is expected to increase the frequency of showers, rain, and thunderstorms, particularly in the afternoons, impacting mainly the western regions of Cuba.
Is the tropical wave from Africa a threat to Cuba?
No, the tropical wave that recently emerged from Africa is a weak system and poses no danger to Cuba or the Atlantic region at this time.
What is NOAA's prediction for the 2025 hurricane season?
NOAA predicts an above-average hurricane season for 2025, with 13 to 19 named storms expected, 6 to 10 of which may become hurricanes, and 3 to 5 potentially reaching major hurricane status.