Cuba's Ambitious Plan to Restore Energy Capacity in Three Years

The Cuban government admitted during a broadcast of Mesa Redonda on Wednesday that the country's national power system is still in a dire state, plagued with frequent blackouts and an aging, deteriorating infrastructure. Despite the ongoing energy crisis, officials touted a plan to reclaim at least 500 megawatts (MW) of capacity over the next three years. This initiative is part of a stabilization strategy focused on thermal generation and renewable energy sources, according to a report from Cubadebate.

Alfredo López Valdés, the general director of the Electric Union, outlined that the recovery plan aims for 60% of the nation's electricity to come from thermal generation, primarily using domestic fuels. Additionally, between 12% and 14% would be generated from gas, boosting domestic power production to over 70%.

By 2030, the government anticipates that 24% of electricity will be derived from renewable sources such as solar photovoltaic, wind, biomass, and bioelectric technologies. A key project in achieving this goal is the refurbishment of the Felton thermoelectric plant's Unit 1, which was damaged by a fire. The 250 MW machine will be rebuilt alongside a second unit of the same capacity. Component manufacturing has commenced in Las Tunas, although critical imports are still necessary, Cubadebate emphasized.

Should resources arrive on schedule, the total recovery timeline could potentially be reduced to two years and one month, according to official estimates. However, none of these "promises" are expected to resolve the issue in the short term, leading to fears that blackouts will undoubtedly persist.

Simultaneously, maintenance and reconstruction work is ongoing at other key plants, such as Renté, Nuevitas, and Mariel. In Nuevitas, the potential replacement of a severely deteriorated 125 MW unit is under consideration, while in Mariel, efforts are underway to repair Unit 7, which was completely dismantled following a fire.

The regime aims to advance on these fronts concurrently to prevent further delays and ensure a minimum level of stability in the system. Additionally, officials claim that these efforts address the current emergency and are part of a structural transformation towards a more sustainable and less import-dependent energy system.

President Miguel Díaz-Canel responded to the country's critical energy situation on Thursday by reaffirming on social media platform X that while the electrical system is in a "grave" condition, its recovery "is not impossible." He stated that although the solution will take time due to its complexity and the "blockade" that, according to him, the United States imposes on resource access, the government is "working hard" and is confident in eventual success.

This statement echoes the official rhetoric that blames external factors for a crisis that is actually the result of the structural collapse of Cuba's energy system and decades of inadequate investment. Meanwhile, the public continues to endure prolonged blackouts without any visible reduction in daily disruptions.

A Promised Reduction in Blackouts

The Cuban regime is once again raising unrealistic expectations among the populace by promising to cut blackouts to an average of "only" four hours per day per customer during the summer. This claim, disseminated by official outlets like Granma, is part of a communication strategy attempting to project control over a crisis that continues to worsen.

The reality, however, contradicts the official narrative. Figures from the national electric system show deficits exceeding 1,600 megawatts (MW) during peak demand times, particularly at night. Power outages are lengthy and unevenly distributed across the country, with interior provinces suffering more severely.

The Ministry of Energy and Mines acknowledges that recovery will be gradual and that blackouts will not disappear in the short term. The official strategy includes increasing generation by 13 gigawatt-hours (GWh) and controlling consumption growth, but the material and technical resources to sustain this goal remain scarce.

A major pressure point on the system is the shortage of liquefied petroleum gas (LPG), which forces thousands of families to cook with electricity, increasing domestic consumption during critical times. This situation further complicates demand management and overloads an already weakened grid.

According to Granma, when power returns after an outage, the simultaneous activation of appliances causes consumption spikes up to 15 times higher than normal, leading to the collapse of obsolete transformers. In Havana, ten transformers failed in a single day.

The regime even attributes part of the problem to the massive importation of appliances between 2018 and 2024. During this period, Cuba imported over 17 million electrical appliances, including electric scooters, refrigerators, and stoves. These goods now fuel a demand that the power system cannot support, revealing the structural failure of the country's energy planning, as acknowledged by the regime.