Once again, the Cuban government is attempting to placate the public with promises of reduced power outages this summer, fostering hopes for a brighter future. However, the daily reality tells a different story, with an electricity deficit exceeding 1,600 megawatts (MW) during peak evening hours and prolonged, uneven power cuts across regions.
The official newspaper Granma reports that the government is working on a "gradual" strategy to restore the electrical system, although officials from the Ministry of Energy and Mines (Minem) themselves admit that power outages will not decrease in the short term. The government's goal for the summer is to reduce disruptions to an average of four hours per customer per day by increasing generation by 13 GWh and curbing consumption growth.
Challenges, however, are substantial. The scarcity of liquefied petroleum gas (LPG) forces many households to cook with electricity, escalating consumption. According to regime-aligned sources, when power returns after an outage, the simultaneous connection of multiple devices creates a current surge up to 15 times higher than normal consumption, leading to the breakdown of transformers already worn out from overuse.
In a single recent day, ten transformers failed in Havana, and Granma even pointed fingers at the importation of appliances. From 2018 to 2024, the island has imported over 17 million household appliances, e-bikes, refrigerators, and other electricity-dependent devices, resulting in a sustained increase in demand that the electrical system cannot support. Scheduled thermal unit maintenance and fuel shortages will continue to impact supply.
Worsening Energy Crisis
The installed thermal generation capacity in the country stands at 1,993 MW, but it is estimated that only 1,120 MW will be available in July, slightly increasing to 1,160 MW in August, according to official data that clearly indicate an energy crisis. This figure falls far short of the national demand, which already matches daytime levels in the early hours, surpassing 3,000 MW, meaning the Cuban electrical system operates with less than half of what it needs.
Argelio Jesús Abad Vigoa, the First Deputy Minister of Minem, explained that 15 thermal units are currently operational, yet some of the most crucial ones are out of service or urgently need repairs. Immediate plans include restoring Felton 2, Mariel 7, Nuevitas 4, and Renté 4, with a promise to reintegrate 550 MW into thermal generation.
Challenges in Renewable Energy
The government is keen to highlight advances in solar energy, acknowledging they are insufficient. Despite the project to install 2,000 MW of photovoltaic energy, once all solar parks are complete, their generation will still be less than the thermal capacity lost since 2019. By January 2026, it is expected that 51 solar parks will be synchronized, contributing a total of 1,115 MW — a fraction of the total needed.
Additionally, technical limitations exist: solar energy is intermittent and cannot guarantee the stability of the electrical system or initiate black starts. To mitigate these variations, 200 MW of storage have been contracted, expected to arrive this year, according to another government promise.
Regarding distributed generation, as of the end of April, the country had 1,020 MW installed, with around 200 recovered so far in 2025. Nonetheless, several engines remain out of service, and fuel supply remains a constant risk factor, predicting a bleak future.
For instance, Energás Varadero has its gas turbine 3 and steam turbine 4 out of operation, with their reintegration expected in June and July, respectively. Efforts are also underway at the Boca de Jaruco gas wells to increase daily production to 2.3 million cubic meters and deliver 8.3 GWh to the system.
Long-Term Challenges
The restoration of Felton 2, one of the regime's major undertakings, will require at least two and a half years of work, with an estimated investment of 70 million dollars. Beams are being processed in Las Tunas, and metallic resources and aggregates are being procured for the project.
Meanwhile, Cubans continue to endure prolonged blackouts, uneven across provinces, and a deteriorating quality of life due to the unstable supply. Although the official discourse insists on progress in structural solutions, the reality is that the numbers reveal insufficient generation, medium-term plans that do not address the present, and a population increasingly skeptical of promises repeated annually.
Understanding Cuba's Energy Situation
Why is Cuba experiencing such severe power outages?
Cuba is facing severe power outages due to a combination of factors including an electricity deficit exceeding 1,600 MW during peak hours, aging infrastructure, fuel shortages, and increased demand from the importation of electrical appliances that the current system cannot support.
What steps is the Cuban government taking to address the energy crisis?
The Cuban government is attempting to reduce power outages to an average of four hours daily per customer by increasing power generation and controlling consumption growth. Efforts include restoring thermal units and integrating solar energy, although these measures are seen as insufficient by many experts.