The National Electric System (SEN) in Cuba is enduring an unprecedented crisis, teetering on the brink of collapse due to deficits that significantly exceed one thousand megawatts. On Thursday, electricity supply interruptions occurred incessantly over a 24-hour period, with the most significant disruption at 8:40 PM, when 1,775 MW were cut off from consumers—exceeding the expected outages for that time.
This disruption was exacerbated by the emergency shutdown of Unit 1 at the Santa Cruz Thermoelectric Plant, intensifying widespread blackouts throughout the early hours of the morning.
Supply and Demand Imbalance
As of 7:00 AM this Friday, the SEN had only 1,700 MW available against a demand of 2,800 MW, creating a 1,100 MW deficit that necessitated ongoing rotational outages during the morning. By midday, a more severe shortfall of approximately 1,200 MW is projected.
Outages and Maintenance Challenges
The dire situation is further complicated by malfunctions and scheduled maintenance at several power stations. Unit 1 of the Santa Cruz plant and Unit 2 of Felton remain offline, while maintenance is ongoing at three blocks of the Santa Cruz, Cienfuegos, and Renté plants, as well as the Guiteras Plant. Additionally, to manage fuel shortages in Nuevitas, Unit 6 of that plant was taken out of service this morning, reducing available thermal capacity by 338 MW.
Fuel Shortage Impact
The scarcity of diesel and other fuels has incapacitated 72 small distributed plants, resulting in the loss of 462 MW of generation capacity. This fuel deficit compounds technical limitations and malfunctions, creating a scenario where restoring units becomes increasingly slow and costly.
Afternoon Peak Forecast
Based on start-up times and fuel deliveries, authorities anticipate recovering 80 MW from diesel plants and an additional 78 MW by reactivating Santa Cruz Unit 1 during peak hours. However, even with these additions, availability would reach only 1,858 MW against an estimated peak demand of 3,400 MW. This would lead to a deficit of 1,542 MW and equivalent cuts of 1,612 MW during the highest consumption periods, threatening the system's stability.
Insufficient Role of Solar Energy
The 11 newly operational photovoltaic solar parks generated 1,058 MWh throughout the day. While this renewable contribution marks progress in diversifying the energy matrix, it covers less than 40% of the accumulated deficit and has not managed to alleviate the prolonged outages.
Rotational Block Rationing in Havana
To manage the crisis, the Electric Company of Havana has implemented a schedule of rotational outages by customer blocks. Block 5 will experience cuts from 10:00 AM to 3:00 PM; Block 2, from 11:00 AM to 4:00 PM; followed by Block 1 until 8:00 PM. In the evening, service will be interrupted for Block 4 starting at 7:00 PM and Block 3 from 8:00 PM. Restoration will occur gradually between 11:00 PM and midnight, following the reverse order of the outages.
Towards a Generalized Collapse
With aging thermal units, reduced fuel supplies, and insufficient renewables, Cuba's electrical grid faces its toughest challenge. Experts warn that without urgent investments in infrastructure and a robust energy diversification plan, the SEN could experience more prolonged mass failures, leaving the Island at a perpetual risk of extensive and economically damaging blackouts.
Understanding Cuba's Power Crisis
What is causing the current power outages in Cuba?
The power outages in Cuba are primarily due to a significant deficit in electricity generation capacity, technical malfunctions, maintenance issues, and fuel shortages.
How is the Cuban government managing the electricity crisis?
The government is implementing rotational power cuts and attempting to recover capacity through limited maintenance and fuel deliveries, although these measures have not been fully effective.
What role does renewable energy play in Cuba's power grid?
While Cuba has introduced photovoltaic solar parks, their contribution is currently insufficient to offset the existing power deficit, covering less than 40% of the shortfall.