The increasing intensity and frequency of heat waves in Cuba are leaving more than just record-breaking temperatures in their wake; they are having a direct impact on the health of the Cuban population. Recent scientific research led by Dr. Luis Lecha Estela, a Distinguished Researcher at the Ministry of Science, Technology, and Environment (Citma), has shown a rise in daily mortality rates associated with these extreme weather events. This trend, previously undetected in the country, was reported by the state-run newspaper Granma.
Since the 2009-2010 period, there has been a continuous rise in extreme hydrometeorological events worldwide. More frequent, intense, and prolonged heat waves have emerged as one of the most alarming phenomena of global climate change, significantly affecting health, the economy, and social well-being.
Vulnerable Groups at Risk
In an interview with Granma, Dr. Lecha, a pioneer in biometeorological forecasting in Cuba, highlighted that the extreme heat predominantly impacts vulnerable groups such as the elderly, young children, pregnant women, and individuals with chronic illnesses. In Villa Clara, where studies have been conducted in partnership with scientific and healthcare entities, severe thermal stress cases and increased excess mortality linked to these weather patterns have been documented.
Health Implications of Extreme Heat
According to medical literature, the most common symptoms related to extreme heat include excessive sweating, dehydration, weakness, dizziness, muscle cramps, and loss of consciousness, among others. During the recent Cuba-Health 2025 Convention, Dr. Lecha Estela emphasized the urgent need to integrate these forecasts into the National Civil Defense System plans to prevent disasters and safeguard the population against the intensifying threat of extreme heat.
Challenging Assumptions and Future Outlook
Dr. Lecha's warnings challenge the previously held belief that Cuba's island status protected it from such extreme events. Since 2015, summers on the island have recorded soaring temperatures for several consecutive days, with a marked increase in the years 2017, 2020, and consistently in 2023 and 2024. During this time, global monthly temperature anomalies surpassed the 1.5 °C threshold compared to the pre-industrial period, highlighting the severity of the phenomenon.
The outlook for the summer of 2025 appears grim. Meteorological models consulted by Dr. Lecha and his team suggest that extreme heat is likely to intensify across Cuba's three regions, influenced by stronger oceanic high pressures, reduced cloud cover, intense solar radiation, and potentially decreased rainfall.
Cuba's Energy Crisis and Record Temperatures
The situation in Cuba is exacerbated by a worsening energy crisis, despite the regime's promises to "improve" power outages during the summer months, alongside a shortage of medicines and inadequate nutrition. Historical data from 1979-2022 indicates that the average air temperature in July and August hovers around 28 °C. However, this year, there is a 70% or higher probability of exceeding these averages, with sustained maximum temperatures above 33 °C.
This rise in temperatures is a global phenomenon. The World Meteorological Organization (WMO) confirmed that 2024 was the hottest year on record, with the average global surface temperature exceeding the 1850-1900 period's average by 1.55 °C. This milestone marks the first year that the global average temperature surpassed the 1.5 °C limit set by the Paris Agreement to avoid the most devastating effects of climate change, the WMO noted.
Cuba experienced several days of intense heat throughout the year. For instance, in May 2024, 24 meteorological stations reported temperatures exceeding 35 degrees Celsius. According to the Forecast Center of the Institute of Meteorology (INSMET), maximum temperatures ranged from 33 to 36 °C, with the highest recorded temperature being 37.9 °C in Velasco, located in the municipality of Gibara, Holguín.
Understanding Heat Waves and Their Impact in Cuba
What are the main health risks associated with heat waves in Cuba?
The primary health risks include excessive sweating, dehydration, weakness, dizziness, muscle cramps, and potential loss of consciousness, particularly affecting vulnerable groups like the elderly and children.
How has Cuba's climate changed since 2015?
Since 2015, Cuba has experienced increasingly hotter summers with prolonged periods of elevated temperatures, debunking the notion that its island geography shields it from extreme weather events.
What measures are being suggested to mitigate the impact of heat waves?
Experts emphasize integrating heat wave forecasts into national defense plans to prevent disasters and protect the population, particularly targeting the most vulnerable individuals.
What role does the energy crisis play in Cuba’s heat wave challenges?
The energy crisis worsens the situation, as power outages become more frequent, limiting access to cooling systems and other essential services during extreme heat events.