The Cuban Institute of Meteorology (Insmet) has urged residents to remain calm and rely only on official sources for updates, in light of a U.S. model suggesting the potential development of a tropical cyclone in the Caribbean Sea around May 19-20. This advisory comes as speculation and concern have spread on social media following a simulation from the GFS (Global Forecast System) model.
Insmet, addressing the issue on its Facebook page, emphasized that forecasts made more than five or six days in advance often have a high margin of error and are subject to significant changes. The institute highlighted that uncertainty is inherent in a forecast 12 or 13 days out. "A tropical system might appear in one model run and be completely absent in the next," Insmet stated.
The institute stressed the importance of staying informed through official channels, such as Insmet itself, Civil Defense, and provincial meteorological centers, rather than succumbing to alarm. "Weather forecasts are not based on a single model. Multiple tools are used, alongside meteorologists' analyses and professional judgment," the agency noted.
Insmet reminded the public that the atmosphere is dynamic and ever-changing, but consistent vigilance is crucial. They urged the community to remain attentive without jumping to conclusions. Should the situation warrant, official warnings will be issued in advance.
The institution also called for the avoidance of sharing unverified forecasts that might cause panic, advising families to update their emergency plans as the Atlantic hurricane season approaches, commencing on June 1. Reliable sources for updates include Insmet's official site, the Forecast Center, Cuban meteorological radars, the Environmental Agency, the Ministry of Science, Technology, and Environment of Cuba (CITMA), and regional meteorological centers.
On a related note, Insmet released its official forecast for the 2025 North Atlantic hurricane season on Wednesday, indicating an active period for tropical phenomena formation, with a moderate risk of direct impact on the country. The forecast, shared on Facebook, suggests oceanic and atmospheric conditions that favor tropical cyclone formation, including high sea temperatures and a shift from La Niña to neutral conditions in the Pacific.
The report anticipates 15 tropical cyclones across the North Atlantic basin, with eight potentially reaching hurricane strength. By region, it projects that 10 will form in the open Atlantic, three in the Caribbean Sea, and two in the Gulf of Mexico. In April, Colorado State University (CSU) released an initial forecast predicting a more active-than-usual 2025 hurricane season. Their report expects 17 named storms, with nine becoming hurricanes and four reaching major hurricane status (category three or higher on the Saffir-Simpson scale).
Understanding the Potential Cyclone Threat
What should the public do in response to cyclone predictions?
The public should remain calm, rely on official information from trusted sources, and update emergency plans as needed. Avoid sharing unverified forecasts that could cause unnecessary panic.
How reliable are long-term weather forecasts?
Long-term forecasts, especially those predicting weather events more than five or six days ahead, often have a high margin of error and can change significantly as new data becomes available.