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Cuba Releases Forecast for 2025 Hurricane Season

Thursday, May 8, 2025 by Olivia Torres

The Cuban Institute of Meteorology announced its official forecast for the 2025 North Atlantic hurricane season this Wednesday, predicting an active period for tropical storm formation with a moderate risk of direct impact on the island. According to their Facebook publication, the predicted oceanic and atmospheric conditions suggest a conducive environment for tropical cyclone development, marked by still-warm sea temperatures and the end of La Niña, transitioning to neutral conditions in the Pacific.

The report anticipates 15 tropical cyclones across the North Atlantic basin, with 8 potentially becoming hurricanes. Regionally, it forecasts that 10 would form in the open Atlantic, 3 in the Caribbean Sea, and 2 in the Gulf of Mexico.

Increased Threat for the Caribbean and Cuba

The report highlights a 75% chance of at least one hurricane forming and intensifying within the Caribbean. Additionally, there is a 50% likelihood of an Atlantic hurricane entering the Caribbean and a similar probability of at least one hurricane impacting Cuba, a figure that surpasses the national historical average of 35%. Consequently, the risk of a tropical storm affecting the island is even higher, at 70%.

Critical Factors: Sea Temperature and Climate Transition

While sea temperatures in the Caribbean and tropical Atlantic remain high, they are slightly lower than the record levels reached in the 2024 season. Current models indicate a reduction in thermal anomalies in the latter half of the year.

Global climate change and phenomena such as the El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) and the transition from La Niña to neutral conditions are elements that will continue to be closely monitored.

Upcoming Update

The Institute of Meteorology has announced that an updated forecast for the 2025 hurricane season will be released on August 5th, when more recent data and updated models are available. This outlook underscores the need for preparedness and vigilance, particularly in a context where the impact of extreme weather events could further exacerbate Cuba’s already challenging social, economic, and infrastructural conditions.

2025 Hurricane Outlook Predicts More Storms and Increased Risk for the Caribbean and the U.S.

In April, Colorado State University (CSU) released an initial forecast indicating that the 2025 hurricane season will be more active than usual. According to their report, 17 named storms are expected, with nine possibly reaching hurricane strength and four becoming major hurricanes (category three or higher on the Saffir-Simpson scale).

Insights into the 2025 Hurricane Season

What are the predicted conditions for the 2025 hurricane season in the North Atlantic?

The forecast suggests an active season with favorable conditions for tropical cyclone formation, including warm sea temperatures and neutral Pacific conditions following La Niña.

How many tropical cyclones are expected in the 2025 season?

The forecast anticipates 15 tropical cyclones in the North Atlantic, with 8 potentially reaching hurricane status.

What is the risk level for Cuba during the 2025 hurricane season?

Cuba faces a 75% chance of hurricane formation in the Caribbean and a 50% likelihood of hurricane impact, higher than the historical average.

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