Cuba Faces Severe Power Crisis with Over 1,400 MW Deficit Expected During Peak Hours

The ongoing energy crisis in Cuba has worsened, leading to continuous blackouts throughout the day. This Saturday is expected to bring significant disruptions due to a generation shortfall. The nation is bracing for another grim day in its power system, with a forecasted impact exceeding 1,100 MW during peak hours, suggesting a predominantly dark weekend.

The Electric Union (UNE) reported uninterrupted outages all day Friday, extending into the early hours of Saturday. The maximum disruption reached 1,683 megawatts (MW) at 7:50 PM, surpassing official predictions due to higher-than-expected demand.

Critical Shortfall in Power Generation

The situation remains dire this Saturday. According to UNE's report, at 7:00 AM, the country had merely 1,720 MW available against a demand of 2,710 MW, resulting in a 1,025 MW deficit from the start of the day. By midday, the impact is projected to reach 1,180 MW, with evening forecasts predicting a demand of 3,400 MW and an availability of just 2,053 MW, leading to a 1,347 MW shortfall.

Consequently, UNE anticipates the shortfall could peak at 1,417 MW during these hours if current technical and supply conditions persist.

Complex Factors Behind the Power Outage

The energy collapse is attributed to several simultaneous issues. A malfunction has rendered Unit 2 of the Felton thermoelectric plant inoperative, while three other units at the Santa Cruz, Cienfuegos, and Renté plants are down for maintenance. Additionally, thermal restrictions have left another 488 MW unavailable due to unspecified technical issues.

A significant factor is the severe fuel shortage impacting a considerable portion of the country's distributed generation. A total of 963 MW is offline due to fuel scarcity, distributed across:

• 78 distributed generation plants (577 MW)
• Mariel fuel plant (133 MW)
• Moa fuel plant (149 MW)
• Melones power barge (104 MW)

Despite the expected addition of some units during the evening peak—like the 104 MW from the Melones power barge and 149 MW from the Moa fuel plant—the improvement is insufficient to meet demand, making widespread blackouts inevitable.

Solar Power's Limited Role Amidst a Structural Crisis

One of the few positive notes from UNE's report was the contribution of new photovoltaic solar parks, which generated 1,103 megawatt-hours (MWh) on Friday. However, this figure remains woefully inadequate against the country's structural needs.

Social Unrest and Economic Impacts

The persistence of prolonged power outages is stirring significant social unrest nationwide. Citizens are reporting outages lasting up to 20 hours in eastern and central regions, disrupting the operations of hospitals, schools, bakeries, water supply networks, and refrigeration systems for food and medication.

In sectors like commerce, restaurants, and transportation, power cuts are causing considerable economic losses and, in some instances, have sparked spontaneous protests in peripheral neighborhoods.

Local analysts warn that the combination of chronic breakdowns in thermoelectric plants, reliance on imported fuel, and the deterioration of the national electrical infrastructure poses an increasing risk to social stability, especially with the arrival of summer months when extreme temperatures drive up consumption.

Meanwhile, UNE continues to appeal for public patience and "rational" electricity use amid what many already deem a structural energy crisis with no short-term resolution in sight.