On a day traditionally filled with parades, slogans, and patriotic performances, Cuba's Electric Union (UNE) made a surprising announcement on May 1: a seemingly miraculous reduction in the electricity generation deficit. After enduring weeks where blackouts exceeded 1,500 to 1,800 megawatts daily, the official forecast for peak hours this Thursday dropped below 1,200 MW.
According to the official report released by the state-run company, the National Electric System's (SEN) availability at 7:00 a.m. was 1,985 MW against a demand of 2,450 MW, with 550 MW affected due to capacity shortages. By midday, an impact of 780 MW was estimated, but the most striking figure was during peak hours: with a maximum demand expected at 3,150 MW and an estimated availability of 2,035 MW, the deficit was projected to be 1,115 MW, with an anticipated impact of 1,185 MW.
While this remains a significant number, the sudden drop in the level of impact compared to previous days has been met with skepticism. The timing aligns with the national May Day parade, hinting that the reduced blackout forecast might be a tactic to mask the energy crisis on a key day for the regime, aiming to portray an image of stability and control to the public and international community, as well as garner popular support.
No substantial changes justify such a reduction. Thermal power plants continue to suffer major failures: Unit 6 of the CTE Renté and Unit 2 of the CTE Felton are out of service, while others—such as Unit 2 of Santa Cruz, Units 3 and 4 of Cienfuegos, and Unit 5 of Renté—are undergoing maintenance. Additionally, 69 distributed generation plants are offline due to fuel shortages, removing another 558 MW from the system, alongside 399 MW of thermal limitations.
As a "positive" note, the UNE mentioned that eight new solar photovoltaic parks produced 940 MWh, a contribution that falls short of covering the energy gap but serves a propagandistic purpose on such dates.
Despite the "miraculous" national report, the Havana Electric Company announced on Facebook that blackouts in the capital would persist throughout the day. According to their information, outages were scheduled for all user blocks from 10:00 a.m. to 11:00 p.m., following a rotating scheme that contradicts any sense of normalcy.
"Considering the generation deficit in the National Electroenergetic System today, it is necessary to affect the capital's customers," the entity stated.
Understanding Cuba's Energy Challenges
Why is Cuba experiencing frequent blackouts?
Cuba's frequent blackouts are due to a combination of aging infrastructure, lack of maintenance, and fuel shortages, which have led to significant deficits in electricity generation capacity.
How does the Cuban government handle the energy crisis?
The Cuban government often issues official reports and forecasts to manage public perception, sometimes altering figures to align with political events or to project stability and control.